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Exhibiting strength
Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 901 -7.2 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 11,677m
- Published:
30 Mar 2023 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK | Watson Scott SW -
Pages:
36 -
A top pick in Media - TP raised to 840p (from 780p)
Informa''s top-line growth forecast of 18% in FY23 looks supported by our latest Exhibition Monitor. We raise our TP to 840p, a level consistent with Charterhouse''s valuing of Informa shares in their portfolio resulting from the recent Tarsus sale. With 25% upside, Informa remains one of our Top Picks in Media.
BNPPE Exhibition Monitor points to further upside
Our proprietary exhibition tracker digs into 65+ Informa events, including over half of the group''s Top 50 brands. It suggests that post-Covid reopening in China is progressing at pace, offering scope for upside, while volumes at US shows are growing above expectations in Q1. We also believe forward bookings for H2 23 events are trending at the higher end of expectations. Our review of Tarsus''s event portfolio suggests Informa''s strong competitive positioning will improve even further.
Deep-dive into Informa Tech leads us to reappraise its growth profile
We conduct a deep-dive into Informa Tech (15% of group revenues), benchmarking vs peers such as Gartner, Forrester, TechTarget, Ziff Davis or ZoomInfo. We argue that following its restructuring, Omdia, Informa Tech''s key asset, is seeing improved operating trends and growing market share. Live B2B events such as Black Hat show stronger-than-expected forward booking growth. Lead generation and audience development offer an attractive growth opportunity. Informa Tech should weather the deteriorating training and advertising spending environment in the Tech industry.
Valuation still attractive
Informa currently offers a FCF yield of 5.5% and 6.4% for 23/24 and trades on a PE of 17.9x and 15.1x for 23/24. This is at the attractive end of the peer group, despite an underleveraged balance sheet and one of the strongest growth profiles in European Media. Market-relative multiples have derated, despite solid EPS revisions. Our underlying EPS increase is offset by currency. We are 3% ahead of...