This content is only available within our institutional offering.

24 Jun 2024
Faster for longer

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Faster for longer
Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 895 -82.3 (-1.0%) | Mkt Cap: 11,619m
- Published:
24 Jun 2024 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
41 -
Informa is more than a Covid recovery story. Strategic initiatives should result in faster-for-longer growth. Our proprietary Exhibition and Open Access trackers lead us to expect positive surprises on consensus growth and margin forecasts for FY24 and FY25. This is not yet in the price, we think.
Informa Markets shows scope for a positive surprise in H1 and FY24
Our BNPPE Exhibition tracker underpins our view that VA consensus underestimates FY24 same-show volume growth trends, pricing benefits and/or the contribution of new event launches. Initial data on 2025 shows look equally supportive of another year of consensus beats.
More than a Covid recovery play. Strategic initiatives drive faster-for-longer growth
Strategic initiatives are starting to pay off. New products contribute to faster growth and enhanced competitiveness. Geographic diversification into Saudi Arabia, India and Africa offers stronger potential than consensually assumed. We increase our group orgrev growth forecasts from 8.9% to 9.6% in FY24e, from 5.4% to 6.6% in FY25e and from 5.3% to 6.0% in FY26e. We raise our adj. EPS24e, 25e and 26e by 2%, 8% and 12% respectively and now stand 1%, 5% and 8% ahead of consensus.
Informa Academic to see top-line growth acceleration, driven by OA and GenAI
Informa Academic is benefiting from a GenAI boost now as it signs GenAI licensing deals for Big Tech to train its LLMs on its 170k-book catalogue. Our tracking of Open Access article volumes, pricing and market share underpins our view that orgrev growth can accelerate from 2% pa on average 2014-2023 to a sustainable 5% pa with a return to pre-Covid margin levels.
Valuation is supportive. TP raised to GBP10
Informa offers a 7% FCF yield 25e and trades on a P/E25e of 14x. Our faster-for-longer scenario looks far from priced in. H1 results and further GenAI licensing deals should be key catalysts. We raise our TP to GBP10 (from GBP9) and reaffirm our Outperform rating with c16% upside...