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  • 24 Jul 2024

Informa beats and raises…for the 7th consecutive quarter


Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 872 24.4 0.3% | Mkt Cap: 11,349m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Kassab Sami SK

    • 12 pages


 

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Informa beats and raises…for the 7th consecutive quarter


Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 872 24.4 0.3% | Mkt Cap: 11,349m


  • Published: 24 Jul 2024
  • Author: Kassab Sami SK
  • Pages: 12
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Informa beats H1 expectations Driven by 13% organic revenue growth at Informa Market (in line with BNPP, ahead of VA cons.), Informa reported 11% H1 organic revenue growth, translating into GBP467m adj. operating profit and adj. EPS of 23.8p, respectively 3% and 4% ahead of the Street. Informa raises guidance On the back of solid H1 trends in B2B Markets and further GenAI licensing deals, management has raised its revenue guidance to ''above the GBP3,450-3,500m'' previous range and raised its adj. operating profit guidance from GBP950-970m previously to ''up to GBP1bn'' now. We have raised our top-of-the-Street EPS forecasts by 2% for FY24 and leave FY25 largely unchanged on the tough comp base such deals create. Management bids to acquire Ascential for GBP1.2bn and intends to sell its other small stakes Informa has also announced a bid to acquire Ascential (FY23 revenues of GBP206m and adj. operating profit of GBP56m) for an undisclosed low-double-digit EV/EBITDA25 multiple after synergies and tax benefits. Ascential will be c5% accretive to group EPS and while the price feels punchy, we understand the strategic merit of further consolidating the trade show industry. Management has also announced it will explore the monetisation of some of the 7 equity stakes it currently owns. Outperform maintained Informa''s operating trends are strong. Our Faster for Longer thesis laid out in INFORMA: Faster for longer is taking shape. The 7% FCF yield 25e is attractive, in our view. Informa remains an active consolidator in the industry, but the Ascential bid marks the end of the capital reshuffling strategy announced 3 years ago. Bar another Covid event, leverage levels look solid and are likely to come down fast as management monetizes an estimated GBP350-400m of equity stakes. Remain O/P.

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