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01 Dec 2022
Leading the pack

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Leading the pack
Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 881 149.8 2.0% | Mkt Cap: 11,444m
- Published:
01 Dec 2022 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
21 -
Informa is set to be the fastest growth company in our coverage next year
We reaffirm our Outperform stance on Informa as we expect the stock to report the fastest 2023 organic revenue growth rate of all large cap Media and Internet stocks in our coverage universe. The normalisation of the exhibitions industry as well as increased investments in digital services and geographic expansion are likely to support this strong top-line growth performance next year.
Proprietary tracking underpins bullish view on 2023
We have updated our proprietary tracking on Informa Markets exhibitor volumes and stand prices. We believe the data are supportive of our bullish stance as several large US shows have already exceeded their 2022 bookings months ahead of their openings. Investments in Saudi Arabia, Beauty and Cosmetics coupled with more aggressive stand price inflation further underpins our view.
2023 margins to surprise on the upside
2022 marked a faster top line recovery than expected. 2023 in our view is likely to mark a faster margin recovery than consensus currently has. Our work on industry gross margins and Informa Markets real estate consolidation leads us to argue that consensus will have to increase operating margins from 24%-25% towards our 27% forecasts for FY23.
Taylor and Francis top line growth likely to accelerate
We continue to expect TandF organic revenue growth to accelerate from 3% to 4% next year on a higher share of fast-growing Open Research revenues and new contracts, as gained in Australia and the US recently.
Valuation is still attractive
Our argument on operating margins sees us stand 3% ahead of VA consensus on EPS23. Informa offers the highest growth profile in Media and Internet and one of the most attractive valuations, on 5.4% FCF yield. We reaffirm our Outperform stance and see 2023 operating margin guidance as the next catalyst when the company reports in March.