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15 Jun 2023
Powering ahead

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Powering ahead
Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 900 -21.6 (-0.3%) | Mkt Cap: 11,689m
- Published:
15 Jun 2023 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
9 -
Informa reports stronger-than-expected top-line growth
Informa reported 24% organic revenue growth for the first 5 months of FY23, with Informa Markets showing 43.5% yoy orgrev growth and guided to accelerate in June, on the timing of Chinese events. Informa Tech was weaker than expected as it is facing choppy markets, with tech firms cutting down on lead generation and marketing spending. Other divisions were broadly in line.
Management raises FY23 revenue and adj. op. profit guidance
Given stronger-than-expected underlying operating trends at Informa Markets and the earlier-than-anticipated closing of the Tarsus deal (cGBP5m of extra adj. EBITA23e), plus the recent Winsight acquisition (cGBP16m adj. EBITA for FY23), management has raised its adj. EBITA guidance to a new range of GBP750-790m. At the mid-point, this implies a 7% underlying adj. EBITA guidance raise for FY23. New revenues are guided to GBP2.95-3.05bn (vs. GBP2.75-2.85bn before).
Chinese revenues set to revert close to 2019 levels. Group revenues to exceed 2019 levels
Management now expects group revenues to exceed 2019 level this year (vs. FY24 previously). In particular, the company has acknowledged the strong recovery in Chinese exhibitions. We now expect Informa Markets China revenues to reach 88% of its 2019 levels in 2023 and 106% next year.
Raising EPS and TP
Despite forex headwinds and weaker trends in Informa Tech, recent acquisitions (Winsight) coupled with the strong performance in Informa Markets leads us to raise our EPS23 and EPS24 by 9%. We raise our TP from 840p to 900p. We continue to believe consensus might be too conservative on the margin trajectory of Informa Markets.
Outperform maintained
Informa offers one of the strongest top-line growth trajectories in Media and Internet in FY23 and FY24 and trades on an attractive 14.5x PE24 and 6.7% FCF yield for a net debt to EBITDA24 ratio below 1x. We reaffirm our Outperform rating.