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17 Nov 2021
Reassuring cash as recovery is ongoing

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Reassuring cash as recovery is ongoing
Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 866 5.2 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 11,244m
- Published:
17 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK | Maas Annick AM -
Pages:
8 -
Ten-month trading update sees Intelligence guidance upgrade
Intelligence over the first 10m posted 6% organic revenue growth, another sign that the group post multiple disposals has turned around the business, which historically grew more around the low single digit range. Today, the division, which consists of Clinical Trials, Vessel Tracking and International Fund and Income Flows businesses, is guided to grow c6% org. in 2021 from 4.5% prev. This growth trend is expected to hold in 2022 as well. We note the particularly attractive multiple of 16x EBITDA at which the group disposed Barbour ABI, Asset Intelligence and Barbour EHS.
FCF reassures and FY revenue and EBITA guidance reiterated
Along with Intelligence, the group raised its FY FCF guidance to GBP325m (from GBP300m) and suggested its cash flow has been positive every month so far in 2021. We also note this guidance is pre-disposals, for which the group is expected to make GBP275m. We believe this is driven by the group''s subscription businesses as well as the rebooking momentum which is ''improving (...) into 2022''. Finally, the group reiterated its Academic guidance of 2% underlying growth for the FY vs 10m at 2.5%. The group revenues were reiterated at c.GBP1.8bn, with an op profit of c.GBP375 for the FY conditional on two major China events happening as planned for December.
Downgrades due to events
Cross-divisional Events'' organic revenues rose by +20% between April and YE and c.7% across the FY. This is partially explained by different base effects. All in all, we keep our Event revenues for 2021 unchanged but take a more cautious view on next year''s recovery given the recent China newsflow. All in all, we now see Markets returning to pre-covid revenues in 2024 vs 2023 previously.
Reiterate Outperform with TP offering 28% upside
We reflect the FY21 EBITA guidance in estimates. We take a more cautious view on the Event recovery, essentially delaying it a year. We adjust for...