GAP II investments to lead to incremental revenues Earlier this week, Informa held a CMD where it outlined its Growth Acceleration plan II. The 3-year plan, which will cost GBP150m, is expected to generate GBP150m+ incremental revenues on the rebased 2019 revenues ex-Intelligence. The group guides for an extra cGBP700m revenue contribution through bolt-on MandA. Informa guides for cGBP100m MandA investment per year. Shareholder returns of GBP1bn As part of GAP II, the group has announced the disposal of its Intelligence assets. Since GAP I, the group has completely turned around these assets, which have now grown c6% organically from negative to low single digit over the last decade. The group expects to sell the assets at an EBITDA multiple of 16x EBITDA in 2022. We forecast a 19x EBITDA multiple for the forthcoming disposals. As a result of these disposals the group expects to return GBP1bn to shareholders, which we now reflect in our estimates, with 50% as buyback and 50% special dividend. A knowledgeable event leader GAP II is intended to fuel the growth in Academic through further investments in Open Research, which should drive the organic revenue growth of the division up to 4% (from 2%). Concurrently, the group expects to accelerate the roll-out of Smart Events, expand in Audience development (USD5-6bn TAM) and build a position in B2B Digital Demand Generation, a market with a USD3bn TAM. Valuation upside and estimates In this note, we go over our estimate changes on the back of the group''s CMD step by step. We reiterate Informa as Outperform and see 28% upside to the current share price. While we exclude Intelligence now from our valuation, we raise our Academic multiple from 12x to 16x to reflect the raised guidance, investment in the division and overall positive sentiment on data analytics as more verticals embrace them. We do not add planned bolt-on MandA, but this provides potential upside.