Our updated tracking underpins our view that Informa Markets could surprise on the upside We have updated our proprietary BNPPE Exhibitions Monitor and argue that the last two months have seen solid progress in forward bookings at the key Informa Markets North American unit. Exhibitor volumes are now running at 80% of their 2019 base. Add in some price inflation and we conclude that management guidance of 75% looks conservative. Mainland China remains a key but manageable short-term headwind Given the ongoing health situation in China, Informa had to cancel some shows and postponed all its largest events to less favourable dates in 2022. Daily reported Covid cases are falling in China and Shanghai has seen some lifting of restrictions. Our industry contact suggests a 50/50 chance that Shanghai shows will run in Q4 22. Up to 5% of Informa group revenues are at risk. Forecast trimmed on China risk We have reduced our Mainland China revenues by close to 20% to account for the public health context. We have also adjusted our forecasts to reflect the earlier than expected closing of the pharma intelligence disposal and forex. EPS22 is trimmed by 2%. AGM update on June 16th seen as supportive Informa is to report its AGM trading update premarket on June 16th. We expect management to focus on the rapid recovery of its US events portfolio and see this as a positive catalyst. Outperform reaffirmed We reaffirm our Outperform rating. Informa Markets'' turnaround is progressing well and Mainland China looks like a manageable short-term risk. Taylor and Francis offers scope for a catch-up in Open Access to help drive a divisional top-line acceleration. With a PE24 of 13x we see less Covid recovery priced into the shares than for other travel-related shares and remain Outperform.