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19 Nov 2024
First Take: Informa - Consistency and strength

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First Take: Informa - Consistency and strength
Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 866 5.2 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 11,244m
- Published:
19 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Alastair Reid -
Pages:
4 -
Robust trading continues
Informa has released a robust 10-month trading update this morning – with group organic growth of 10.7%, supported by both key business areas (B2B Markets +11.1%, Academic +10.0%). Within B2B, the key exhibitions division saw 13.5% growth, and management note that forward bookings for 2025 are on track, highlighting that the major exhibitions scheduled for Q1 are running at 5%+ growth. In Academic, the high growth reflected $75m+ of AI licensing revenues from newly signed partners.
On track for FY guidance
Overall, management state that the company is on track to meet previously upgraded FY guidance – double digit growth and then (including the Ascential acquisition, which parts of consensus do not as yet) operating profit of £975m+. Elsewhere, the company announces the divestment of the remaining minority stake in the Maritime Intelligence business and highlight the forthcoming shareholder vote on the Techtarget merger on November 26. Longer-term, management re-iterate their aspirations in the 2025-2028 Informa program, for 5%+ organic growth p.a., and longer-term revenues of >£4bn.
Maintaining momentum
Having rallied in the past month, Informa shares are now trading at just over 10x FY25E EBITDA, or c.15x PE. This is far from expensive in our view, with the share price having largely reflected robust earnings momentum in recent periods (with upwards revisions continuing for longer than, admittedly, we expected). That said, there may well be a lull in positive catalysts for a time now, and with significant US / China exposure, fears over future tariffs / trade disruption in 2025 could weigh on sentiment and limit any re-rating somewhat.