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22 Apr 2021
First Take: Informa - Reasons for optimism

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First Take: Informa - Reasons for optimism
Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 901 73.9 0.9% | Mkt Cap: 11,693m
- Published:
22 Apr 2021 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
4 -
Emerging stronger than before
In their FY results today, Informa have reported FY revenues of £1661m, and EBITA of £268m, both broadly in-line with consensus. By division, the subscription businesses of Informa Intelligence and Taylor & Francis delivered impressively robust results, with both Markets and Connect slightly below our estimates. Management note the significant actions taken during 2020, with >£600m of cost savings made, and the balance sheet now has >£1bn of liquidity with all financial covenants removed.
2021 – a year of transition
On the outlook, management note that Informa has generated positive cash-flow in Q1 and that the robust performance of the subscription side of the business has continued, targeting positive growth at Taylor & Francis and 4%+ organic growth at Informa Intelligence in 2021 (both ahead of consensus forecasts). They re-iterate previous guidance that they expect to generate a baseline of £1.7bn of revenue, before the contribution of physical events outside mainland China.
Structural strength
More structurally, on exhibitions, management note their belief that demand for event platforms remains in place, having run 45 events with 1.2m attendees since last June in mainland China. Six of these events saw revenues inline or ahead of 2019 levels, and 65% of events revenue is typically generated in China and North America, where re-opening continues on a state by state basis. They also note that Informa has generated £100m of revenue from virtual/hybrid events already, and their recent deals with firms like Swapcard & Totem to facilitate these could help structurally shift the business towards more resilient, year round, marketplace models. Informa currently trades at c.14x CY23E EPS – with activity returning and the portfolio quality being upgraded, we see scope for further-rerating.