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17 Jan 2022
Informa : Build it and they will come - Buy

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Informa : Build it and they will come - Buy
Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 881 149.8 2.0% | Mkt Cap: 11,444m
- Published:
17 Jan 2022 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
15 -
Capturing unrecognised value: Informa announced plans to dispose of its fast growing Intelligence division, with an expectation of a valuation above 16x EBITDA (feasible given peer / transaction multiples – we assume 16x FY23E EBITDA or c.£2bn) and a capital return of £1bn. We estimate this would leave leverage at just 0.5x even with £350m of M&A in 2023E – a sale multiple of 20x and leveraging to 1.5x could give a further 9% upside to long-term earnings.
Creating the ‘new’ Informa: Alongside the disposal, Informa are deploying £150m over 3 years to accelerate growth in the GAP 2 scheme – the performance of Intelligence (the main focus of GAP 1) should provide confidence management will deliver returns on this. In the B2B segment, first party data from Informa’s 10m (20m by 2024) database of corporate contacts should provide a significant revenue and value creation opportunity, as it widens its addressable market by providing digital lead generation services to corporates. We highlight how the strategy, growth and value of listed equivalent TechTarget demonstrates what could be achieved. Separately, Informa’s growing Open Access footprint allows it to target new funding sources, to drive an acceleration to above 4% organic growth. These factors underpin management’s aspiration to deliver 5%+ normalised organic growth.
Structurally mispriced: Short-term EPS falls by >20% with the sale of Intelligence, but increases by 3% in FY24E as related cash returns and acquisitions take effect – our revenue forecast in that year remains in the lower half of management’s guidance range. Informa now trades at c.12x FY24E PE, a discount to both Euromoney and RELX (at over 19x PE). RELX and US peers (at over 20x FY23 EBITDA) provide an aspirational target of where we believe Informa’s valuation should at least move towards, as the increasing quality and quantum of the growth potential is recognised.