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30 Aug 2022
Informa : Now to show what it can do - Buy

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Informa : Now to show what it can do - Buy
Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 936 54.3 0.6% | Mkt Cap: 12,132m
- Published:
30 Aug 2022 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
6 -
Focus: The reshaping of Informa’s portfolio to provide greater focus is now complete to a greater or lesser extent. The recent sale announcements mean the Intelligence division disposal process is at an end, with estimated pre-tax cash proceeds of >£2.1bn, and an impressive combined valuation of >30x FY21 EBITA. Equally, the acquisition of Industry Dive (at a reassuring c.11x EBITDA pre synergies) provides both significant strategic benefits, and a source of growth in and of itself. Taking these, an assumed eventual £1bn buyback (versus current £725m plan), and an extra £350m of acquisition spend in FY23E into account, leverage remains below 1x – giving scope for incremental acquisitions / cash returns next year.
Demand strengthening: We recognise the risks to Event recovery from further lockdowns in China, but with signs that re-openings continue, we have increasing confidence in our assumption that the underlying events portfolio reaches 70% of FY19 levels in FY22E, and 85% in FY23E (helped by better pricing power). At the same time, investment this year at Taylor & Francis should pay off in further top-line acceleration / margin improvement over the medium-term. Growth in registered customers in the IIRIS database also continues robustly (now >12m), providing significant incremental revenue opportunities from the existing business.
Re-rating to start: On forecasts, we increase EBITA & EPS by 13-18% this year and by 5% in FY23E (reflecting the final scope of M&A), whilst LT profits are trimmed modestly. Our TP increases to 725p reflecting the disposal process and valuations. Informa trades at a modest 13x calendar FY24E earnings – given the increasing quantum and quality of revenue growth the portfolio can deliver, we see this as far too cheap relative to peers, even before the scope for EPS upside from balance sheet deployment.