Quite the run: Informa shares have been very strong over the past two years, outperforming the FTSE 100 by >30% over that period. This arguably reflected a combination of a faster-than-expected recovery in exhibitions activity (particularly in China more recently) and the impressive rebuild of earnings to above pre-Covid levels as the proceeds from the Intelligence disposal were deployed into cheaper exhibitions acquisitions and a £1bn buyback. From a fundamental standpoint, the business is arguably structurally better placed than pre-pandemic, with less leverage and no banking covenants. Catalysts less obvious: That said, after more underlying upgrades, further acquisitions, and the provision of long-term margin targets (30% in FY25, modestly above our estimate), the recent smorgasbord of catalysts could offer fewer rich pickings for investors in the near-term. For balance, we note that new management at Taylor & Francis means margin rebound is unlikely to be imminent, YE leverage of 1.3x makes sizeable buybacks less likely once the current programme ends in Q4 (particularly given a continuing desire as a market leader to consolidate fragmented industries), and greater exposure to exhibitions and corporate marketing budgets has arguably increased cyclicality again in the group. Even if peer commentary suggests tech marketing budgets are stabilising, we await clarity on China macro trends into 2024. Efficient repricing: We increase our forecasts for revenue and profit by 2-4% this year, but the pulled forward recovery plus the impact of FX moves and increased minorities mean our earnings are unchanged longer-term, and we trim our TP to 775p within our SOTP/DCF range. Informa now trades at 15x FY24E PE, or 11x EBITDA – by no means expensive, but offering a somewhat less obvious valuation mis-pricing than before. We downgrade to Hold.