Fundamental drivers to remain robust: Although interim results in late July will show the natural skew of FY19 organic growth towards H2 (exacerbated by tough comps at Taylor & Francis), we expect them to provide a helpful reminder of the resilience of the fundamental growth drivers at Informa – with new product sales driving accelerating growth in the Intelligence division (skewing risk to FY20 consensus growth estimates to the upside), exhibition markets all continuing to grow robustly (outside the Middle East) and self-help margin expansion coming through as hoped. Micro, not macro, to drive Markets: Middle East exhibitions this year are being impacted by demand shifting to the Dubai Expo event in 2020, US construction events will be impacted by a quadriennial trade association event next year and the last UBM Fashion venue contracts only expire in H120. That said, if macro trends remain unchanged, we still expect Markets to see faster growth in FY20 than in 2019 – these timing factors become tailwinds in FY21. B2B platforms, not events: More structurally, Informa’s efforts to roll out the MarketMakr initiative (creating online platforms for the niche B2B industries their events serve) could be a hidden source of value mid-term, boosting the resilience of Markets division revenues and improving pricing power. Dividend growth to accelerate? With 2019 seeing the last of the portfolio clean-up, 2020 should also bring a return of focus on how its balance sheet flexibility can be utilised – we expect bolt-on deals in Intelligence and see scope for faster dividend growth given the pay-out ratio below 50%.