17 Jul 2025
First Take: Dunelm - FY update in-line
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First Take: Dunelm - FY update in-line
Dunelm Group plc (DNLM:LON) | 1,078 -183.3 (-1.6%) | Mkt Cap: 2,173m
- Published:
17 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
Management expecting FY24 PBT to be in-line with current market expectations
Despite the continued volatility in the marketplace, Q4 was a good quarter, with management expecting FY24 PBT to be in-line with current market expectations (company-compiled consensus PBT £210m; range £207m-£215m, vs INVe £213.5m).
4Q total sales grew 4% YOY, an expected slow down on 3Q’s +6.3% which benefitted from a soft March comp last year and better weather (2Q +1.6%; 1Q +3.5%). Furniture was called out as continuing to perform well with outdoor furniture and decorative sales helped by better weather. Q4 included the summer sale. 4 new stores were opened in Q4 and the group acquired the Designers Guild brand and archive.
FY total sales up were 3.8% to £1,7741m (consensus £1,748m) with online penetration up 3pps to 40%. FY gross margin is now expected to be up 60bps to 52.4%, ahead of guidance of 51.5% to 52%, helped by strong full price sales in Q4 and a small tailwind from FX.
No sign of a market recovery but confident of ability to take market share. No change to our PBT estimates
On outlook, management is yet to see signs of a consumer recovery, but is confident of the group’s ability to take market share. FY26 consensus expectation is for adjusted PBT of £220m (range £211m-£232m, versus INVe £227m). We expect to maintain our PBT forecast although the shape may change slightly to reflect the FY25 outcome.
Awaiting new CEO in October but expect little change in strategic direction
Share price is up 6.8% YTD/+1.5% 12 months. Valuation (CY26E PE c.13.6x; ordinary div yield 4.2%) does not reflect the attractive cash generation and longer-term growth opportunities, in our view. Dunelm has good momentum and continues to take market share in a highly fragmented market. Management remains focused on delivering against its ‘3 pillars of growth’, which are elevating the product offer; connecting with more customers; and harnessing its operational capabilities. Clodagh Moriarty takes over from Nick Wilkinson, who is retiring, as CEO from 1st October.