We reduce our estimate of 2026 earnings per unit to $2.37 from $2.53 and our price target to $29 from $31, while maintaining our Moderate risk rating.
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) reported 4Q:25 results on February 2, beating earnings estimates due to a one-time gain. Revenue of $536 million was 6% below our estimate due to lower coal volume than we had forecast. Oil and gas royalty revenue was up 12% year over year. In addition, ARLP booked a $17.5 million one-time gain from an increase in the fair value of its investment in the Gavin power plant, offset by a $15.4 million reduction in the fair value of its bitcoin holdings. Earnings per unit were $0.64, beating our estimate of $0.52 by $0.12. The company declared a $0.60 cash distribution for the quarter.
On January 29, ARLP announced the likely closure of its Mettiki Coal operation in West Virginia. Mettiki's largest customer will not be purchasing any coal for the foreseeable future due to an outage at its facility, making the mine uneconomic to operate. The immediate financial impact of closing the mine is expected to be limited. ARLP is also evaluating whether to take an impairment charge related to closing the mine, which could range from $10-$20 million.
Coal showed its importance to the US energy grid during the recent snowstorm. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, coal supplied 24% of the power distributed by PJM during the storm, up from 10-15% during normal weather.
ARLP also issued 2026 guidance on its recent earnings call. ARLP's guidance shows a 4.5% increase in coal volumes, offset by a 6% decline in average coal prices. Lower than expected guidance leads us to reduce revenue and earnings estimates.
We reduce our estimate of 2026 earnings per unit to $2.37 from $2.53 and we reduce our price target to $29 from $31, while maintaining our Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an 11x multiple to our reduced estimate of 2026 earnings, plus $2.40 in expected cash distributions in 2026. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by ARLP's modest debt to capital ratio of 20%, and high interest coverage ratio of 7.7x.
05 Feb 2026
4Q:25 Coal Volume And Guidance Lower Than Expected; Reduce 2026 And 2027 Coal Revenue And Earnings Estimates; Reduce Price Target To $29 From $31; Maintain Moderate Risk Rating
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4Q:25 Coal Volume And Guidance Lower Than Expected; Reduce 2026 And 2027 Coal Revenue And Earnings Estimates; Reduce Price Target To $29 From $31; Maintain Moderate Risk Rating
Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
05 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Michael Mathison -
Pages:
10 -
We reduce our estimate of 2026 earnings per unit to $2.37 from $2.53 and our price target to $29 from $31, while maintaining our Moderate risk rating.
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) reported 4Q:25 results on February 2, beating earnings estimates due to a one-time gain. Revenue of $536 million was 6% below our estimate due to lower coal volume than we had forecast. Oil and gas royalty revenue was up 12% year over year. In addition, ARLP booked a $17.5 million one-time gain from an increase in the fair value of its investment in the Gavin power plant, offset by a $15.4 million reduction in the fair value of its bitcoin holdings. Earnings per unit were $0.64, beating our estimate of $0.52 by $0.12. The company declared a $0.60 cash distribution for the quarter.
On January 29, ARLP announced the likely closure of its Mettiki Coal operation in West Virginia. Mettiki's largest customer will not be purchasing any coal for the foreseeable future due to an outage at its facility, making the mine uneconomic to operate. The immediate financial impact of closing the mine is expected to be limited. ARLP is also evaluating whether to take an impairment charge related to closing the mine, which could range from $10-$20 million.
Coal showed its importance to the US energy grid during the recent snowstorm. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, coal supplied 24% of the power distributed by PJM during the storm, up from 10-15% during normal weather.
ARLP also issued 2026 guidance on its recent earnings call. ARLP's guidance shows a 4.5% increase in coal volumes, offset by a 6% decline in average coal prices. Lower than expected guidance leads us to reduce revenue and earnings estimates.
We reduce our estimate of 2026 earnings per unit to $2.37 from $2.53 and we reduce our price target to $29 from $31, while maintaining our Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an 11x multiple to our reduced estimate of 2026 earnings, plus $2.40 in expected cash distributions in 2026. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by ARLP's modest debt to capital ratio of 20%, and high interest coverage ratio of 7.7x.