Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) reports earnings February 2. We maintain our 4Q:25 estimate of $0.52 earnings per unit (EPU), and our full-year 2025 estimate of $2.28. We also maintain our $31 price target and Moderate risk rating.
Our earnings estimates reflect the impact of recent declines in the market price of bitcoin. We forecast a non-cash $15 million mark-to-market loss in 4Q:25 on ARLP's bitcoin assets. FactSet's consensus estimate for 4Q:25 is $0.62, $0.10 higher than our estimate. We suspect that the ($0.12) per unit impact of the mark-to-market loss is not reflected in the consensus.
In addition to reporting earnings, we expect ARLP to issue 2026 guidance on the call. Prior to the issuance of guidance we projected 2026 revenue growth of 2.7%, to reach $2.29 billion. We also projected 2026 EPU at $2.53, an 11% increase over 2025. We expect to update our forecasts based on management guidance.
Power demand continues to grow at a rapid pace. PJM, a non-profit grid operator in ARLP's region, forecasts 3.6% annual growth in peak power demand over the next 10 years, up from its prior forecast of 3.1% and up from less than 2% annual growth in the period 2010-2020. Increased power demand has driven increased demand for coal from electricity generators.
We maintain our $31 price target and Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an 11x multiple to our $2.53 forecast for 2026 EPU, plus $2.40 in expected per unit cash distributions in the year. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by ARLP's low debt to capital level of 20% and high interest coverage ratio of 8x.
23 Jan 2026
Maintain 4Q:25 Estimate Of $0.52 Per Unit, Reflecting Solid Operating Results And Mark To Market Non Cash Loss In Bitcoin Assets; Maintain $31 Price Target And Moderate Risk Rating
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Maintain 4Q:25 Estimate Of $0.52 Per Unit, Reflecting Solid Operating Results And Mark To Market Non Cash Loss In Bitcoin Assets; Maintain $31 Price Target And Moderate Risk Rating
Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
23 Jan 2026 -
Author:
Michael Mathison -
Pages:
10 -
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) reports earnings February 2. We maintain our 4Q:25 estimate of $0.52 earnings per unit (EPU), and our full-year 2025 estimate of $2.28. We also maintain our $31 price target and Moderate risk rating.
Our earnings estimates reflect the impact of recent declines in the market price of bitcoin. We forecast a non-cash $15 million mark-to-market loss in 4Q:25 on ARLP's bitcoin assets. FactSet's consensus estimate for 4Q:25 is $0.62, $0.10 higher than our estimate. We suspect that the ($0.12) per unit impact of the mark-to-market loss is not reflected in the consensus.
In addition to reporting earnings, we expect ARLP to issue 2026 guidance on the call. Prior to the issuance of guidance we projected 2026 revenue growth of 2.7%, to reach $2.29 billion. We also projected 2026 EPU at $2.53, an 11% increase over 2025. We expect to update our forecasts based on management guidance.
Power demand continues to grow at a rapid pace. PJM, a non-profit grid operator in ARLP's region, forecasts 3.6% annual growth in peak power demand over the next 10 years, up from its prior forecast of 3.1% and up from less than 2% annual growth in the period 2010-2020. Increased power demand has driven increased demand for coal from electricity generators.
We maintain our $31 price target and Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an 11x multiple to our $2.53 forecast for 2026 EPU, plus $2.40 in expected per unit cash distributions in the year. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by ARLP's low debt to capital level of 20% and high interest coverage ratio of 8x.