3Q:25 CAD (cash available for dividend) of nearly $136 million exceeded our projection by 6% and rose more than 46% year over year as AROC continues to expand its fleet at improving margins amid growing U.S. natural gas production.
Contract compression gross margin widened to more than 70% from less than 68% in the year-earlier quarter, even when excluding a $9.9 million cash tax credit this quarter.
Aftermarket services revenue grew more than 20% year over year (exceeding our forecast by more than 14%) to $56 million.
Management raised its full year CAD guidance to $526-$531 million (previously $502-$527 million) and reiterated guidance for at least $250 million in growth capex next year, supported by multiyear agreements.
We expect growing compression demand in the Haynesville, Marcellus and Rockies, benefiting from LNG export growth and data center power consumption, will partially offset slowing growth for Permian gas lift in 2026.
We model additional annual double-digit dividend increases through 2027, supported by growing cash flow, with the dividend coverage ratio remaining safely above 3x and share repurchases as the Board approved an additional $100 million to its buyback program.
Even as AROC has increased its dividend 40% since the beginning of 2023 and funded fleet expansion (including acquisitions), net leverage remained at the low end of management's target of 3.0x-3.5x at the of 3Q:25.
Our $30 price target is based on 9x our 2026 CAD per share estimate of $3.34 (was $3.33). Our moderate risk rating is supported by a dividend coverage ratio above 3x and leverage at the low end of AROC's target range.
30 Oct 2025
3Q:25 Cash Flow Modestly Tops Our Forecast; Expect Rising Cash Generation To Fund Fleet Expansion, Share Repurchases And Higher Dividends In 2026-2027; Maintain $30 Price Target
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3Q:25 Cash Flow Modestly Tops Our Forecast; Expect Rising Cash Generation To Fund Fleet Expansion, Share Repurchases And Higher Dividends In 2026-2027; Maintain $30 Price Target
3Q:25 CAD (cash available for dividend) of nearly $136 million exceeded our projection by 6% and rose more than 46% year over year as AROC continues to expand its fleet at improving margins amid growing U.S. natural gas production.
Contract compression gross margin widened to more than 70% from less than 68% in the year-earlier quarter, even when excluding a $9.9 million cash tax credit this quarter.
Aftermarket services revenue grew more than 20% year over year (exceeding our forecast by more than 14%) to $56 million.
Management raised its full year CAD guidance to $526-$531 million (previously $502-$527 million) and reiterated guidance for at least $250 million in growth capex next year, supported by multiyear agreements.
We expect growing compression demand in the Haynesville, Marcellus and Rockies, benefiting from LNG export growth and data center power consumption, will partially offset slowing growth for Permian gas lift in 2026.
We model additional annual double-digit dividend increases through 2027, supported by growing cash flow, with the dividend coverage ratio remaining safely above 3x and share repurchases as the Board approved an additional $100 million to its buyback program.
Even as AROC has increased its dividend 40% since the beginning of 2023 and funded fleet expansion (including acquisitions), net leverage remained at the low end of management's target of 3.0x-3.5x at the of 3Q:25.
Our $30 price target is based on 9x our 2026 CAD per share estimate of $3.34 (was $3.33). Our moderate risk rating is supported by a dividend coverage ratio above 3x and leverage at the low end of AROC's target range.