• Research Tree
  • Features
  • Pricing
  • Events
  • Reg.News
  • Short Interest
  • Explore Content
    • Explore

      • Providers
        • Providers

          • Free/Commissioned
          • High Net Worth Offering
          • Institutional Offering

          Free/Commissioned

          Research that is free to access for all investors. Companies commission these providers to write research about them.

          View Research

          What is our Main Bundle Offering?

          Brokers who write research on their corporate clients and make it available through our main bundle offering.

          View Research

          What is Institutional?

          Research that is paid for directly by asset managers. Only accessible to institutional investors permissioned for access.

          View Research
      • Regions
        • Regions

          • UK
          • Rest of EMEA
          • N America
          • APAC
          • LatAm
      • Exchanges
        • Exchanges

          • Aquis Apex
          • Australian Securities Exchange
          • Canadian Securities Exchange
          • Euronext Paris
          • London Stock Exchange (domestic)
          • SIX Swiss Exchange
      • Sectors
        • Sector Coverage

          • Building & Construction
          • Discretionary Personal Goods
          • Discretionary Retail
          • Energy
          • Health
          • Investment Trusts
          • Media
          • Resources
          • Technology
      • Small / Large Cap
        • Small / Large Cap

          • UK100
          • UK250
          • UK Smallcap
          • UK Other Main Markets
          • Other
  • Login
  • Sign Up
LIVE

Event in Progress:

Join Here ×

working
  • 06 Jan 2026

2026 Outlook: We Forecast Strong Earnings Growth From Recent Contract Wins; New Skip Tracing Contract Could Facilitate ISAP, Detention Growth; Balance Sheet Improved; Maintain $27 Target


The GEO Group (GEO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Brendan McCarthy, CFA

    • 10 pages


 

GEO remains well positioned to aid ICE with its immigration objectives, which we expect to be the company's primary growth driver. GEO announced that it was awarded a two-year, $121 million contract by ICE for the provision of skip tracing services. Though the case volume and contract economics are unclear at this point, we think the new business line could foster a natural transition into detention or electronic monitoring. Our 2026 outlook calls for 39% EPS growth, driven by incremental revenue from recent contract wins as population levels normalize. Our estimates reflect stable Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) participant counts (under 200,000) and exclude the potential reactivation of GEO's 6,000 idle beds. Our 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate is $514 million, up 12% from an estimated $461 million in 2025. Potential facility reactivations under new contracts, materially higher ISAP volume, and/or future share buybacks represent potential upside catalysts to our estimates. GEO continues to successfully deleverage the balance sheet, with leverage at 3.2x at 3Q:25. Given the current share price range and the $500 million authorization, we expect the company to opportunistically repurchase shares in 2026. Under our balance sheet assumptions and 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $514 million, GEO shares are currently trading around 7x EV/EBITDA, below the 10x five-year average, implying attractive upside. We maintain our $27 price target, based on 18x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.51. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.

Sign up for free to access

Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.

Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.


Get Started
Already a member? Log in here
See all the research we have on this company.

2026 Outlook: We Forecast Strong Earnings Growth From Recent Contract Wins; New Skip Tracing Contract Could Facilitate ISAP, Detention Growth; Balance Sheet Improved; Maintain $27 Target


The GEO Group (GEO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 06 Jan 2026
  • Author: Brendan McCarthy, CFA
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


GEO remains well positioned to aid ICE with its immigration objectives, which we expect to be the company's primary growth driver. GEO announced that it was awarded a two-year, $121 million contract by ICE for the provision of skip tracing services. Though the case volume and contract economics are unclear at this point, we think the new business line could foster a natural transition into detention or electronic monitoring. Our 2026 outlook calls for 39% EPS growth, driven by incremental revenue from recent contract wins as population levels normalize. Our estimates reflect stable Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) participant counts (under 200,000) and exclude the potential reactivation of GEO's 6,000 idle beds. Our 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate is $514 million, up 12% from an estimated $461 million in 2025. Potential facility reactivations under new contracts, materially higher ISAP volume, and/or future share buybacks represent potential upside catalysts to our estimates. GEO continues to successfully deleverage the balance sheet, with leverage at 3.2x at 3Q:25. Given the current share price range and the $500 million authorization, we expect the company to opportunistically repurchase shares in 2026. Under our balance sheet assumptions and 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $514 million, GEO shares are currently trading around 7x EV/EBITDA, below the 10x five-year average, implying attractive upside. We maintain our $27 price target, based on 18x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.51. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.

More Content

More Content

Strong 1Q:26 Results Reflect Lower Expenses, Better ISAP Mix; 2026 Guidance Increased; Raise 2026, Maintain 2027 Estimates; Asset Sales Could Drive Substantial Value; Maintain $27 Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

Highlight $45 Billion In Detention Funding, Potential For ISAP To Benefit From Reprogramming; Note Recent Contract Wins; Upbeat On Debt Paydown Path; Maintain Estimates, $46 Price Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

We See Momentum Building For Owned Facility Asset Sales; Highlight Replacement Cost Value Proposition; Estimate Strong Secure Services Results In 1Q:26; Maintain Estimates, $27 Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

Trim Price Target To $37 (From $46); Lower Estimates To Reflect Steady ISAP Participation; Detentions Continue Upward Trend; 2025 Guidance Increased; Highlight Share Buyback Program

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

Takeaways On ICE's New Detention Initiative: We Expect Total ICE Capacity To Include Both Public And Private Sector Beds; Initiative Could Influence Asset Sales; Maintain $27 Price Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company
Research Tree
Useful Links
  • Features
  • Pricing
  • RNS/Newswires Feeds
  • Providers Hub
  • Company Hub
  • Stock Pick League
  • iOS and Android Apps
Account
  • Login
  • Join Now
  • Contact
  • Follow us on Linkedin
  • Follow us on X

© Research Tree 2026

  • Apple Store
  • Play Store
  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy and Statement on Cookies

Research Tree will never share your details with third parties for marketing purposes. Research Tree distributes research documents that have been produced and approved by Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) Authorised & Regulated firms as well as relevant content from non-authorised sources, who are not regulated but the information is in the public domain. For the avoidance of doubt Research Tree is not giving advice, nor has Research Tree validated any of the information.

Research Tree is an Appointed Representative of Sturgeon Ventures which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Top
  • Home
  • Features
  • Pricing
  • Event Hub
  • Reg.News
  • Short Interest Tracker
  • Explore Content
    • Regions
      • UK
      • Rest of EMEA
      • N America
      • APAC
      • LatAm
    • Exchanges
      • Aquis Apex
      • Australian Securities Exchange
      • Canadian Securities Exchange
      • Euronext Paris
      • London Stock Exchange (domestic)
      • SIX Swiss Exchange
    • Sectors
      • Automobile Industry
      • Banks
      • Building & Construction
      • Chemicals
      • Discretionary Personal Goods
      • Discretionary Retail
      • Energy
      • ETFs
      • Financial Services
      • Food & Drink
      • Food Production
      • Health
      • Household Goods & DIY
      • Industrial Equipment, Goods & Services
      • Insurance & Reinsurance
      • Investment Trusts
      • Leisure, Tourism & Travel
      • Media
      • Open-ended Funds
      • Other
      • Real Estate
      • Resources
      • Staple Retail
      • Technology
      • Telecoms
      • Trusts, ETFs & Funds
      • Utilities
    • Small / Large Cap
      • UK100
      • UK250
      • UK Smallcap
      • UK Other Main Markets
      • Other
    • Private/EIS
      • EIS Single Company
      • EIS/SEIS Funds
      • IHT Products
      • SEIS Single Company
      • VCT Funds
  • Providers
    • Free/Commissioned
      • Actinver
      • Actio Advisors
      • Allenby Capital
      • Alternative Resource Capital
      • Asset TV
      • Astris Advisory
      • Atrium Research
      • Baden Hill
      • BlytheRay
      • BNP Paribas Exane - Sponsored Research
      • Bondcritic
      • Bowsprit Partners Limited
      • Brand Communications
      • Brokerlink
      • BRR Media
      • Calvine Partners
      • Capital Access Group
      • Capital Link
      • Capital Markets Brokers
      • Cavendish
      • Checkpoint Partners
      • Clear Capital Markets
      • Couloir Capital
      • Doceo
      • Edison
      • EM Spreads
      • Engage Investor
      • Equity Development
      • eResearch
      • First Equity
      • Five Minute Pitch TV
      • focusIR
      • Fundamental Research Corp
      • Galliano’s Latin Notes
      • GBC AG
      • goetzpartners securities Limited
      • Golden Section Capital
      • GreenSome Finance
      • GSBR Research
      • H2 Radnor
      • Hardman & Co
      • Holland Advisors
      • Hypothesis Research
      • InterAxS Global
      • Kepler | Trust Intelligence
      • London Stock Exchange
      • Longspur Clean Energy
      • Mello Events
      • Messari Research
      • Morphose Capital Partners
      • MUFG Corporate Markets IR
      • Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK
      • NuWays
      • OAK Securities
      • Oberon Capital
      • Optimo Capital
      • Panmure Liberum
      • Paul Scott
      • Peel Hunt
      • PIWORLD / Progressive
      • Primary Portal
      • Proactive
      • Progressive Equity Research
      • Quantum Research Group
      • QuotedData
      • RaaS Research Group
      • RBC Capital Markets
      • Research Dynamics
      • Research Tree
      • Resolve Research
      • SEAL Advisors Ltd
      • ShareSoc
      • Shore Capital
      • Sidoti & Company
      • Small Cap Consumer Research LLC
      • StockBox
      • Tennyson Securities
      • The AIC
      • The Business Magazine Group
      • The Curious Compounder
      • The Edge Group
      • The Investor Summit
      • The Life Sciences Division
      • ThinkFront
      • Ticker TV
      • Tring Triangle
      • Trinity Delta
      • Turner Pope Investments
      • UK Investor Group
      • ValueTrack
      • Venn Brown
      • Vox Markets
      • VRS International S.A. - Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS)
      • VSA Capital
      • Winterflood Securities
      • World Platinum Investment Council
      • Yaru Investments
      • Yellowstone Advisory
      • Zacks Small Cap Research
      • Zeus Capital
    • High Net Worth Offering
      • Fox Davies Capital
      • ABG Sundal Collier
      • ACF Equity Research
      • Acquisdata
      • AlphaValue
      • Arctic Securities
      • Arden Partners
      • Auctus Advisors
      • Baptista Research
      • BNP Paribas Exane - Sponsored Research
      • Canaccord Genuity
      • Cavendish
      • Couloir Capital
      • Degroof Petercam
      • Dowgate Capital
      • First Berlin
      • First Equity
      • First Sentinel
      • Greenwood Capital Partners
      • Hannam & Partners
      • Hybridan
      • Kemeny Capital
      • Longspur Clean Energy
      • Louis Capital
      • Magnitogorsk Iron and steel works
      • Medley Global Advisors
      • Northland Capital Partners
      • OAK Securities
      • Oberon Capital
      • Panmure Liberum
      • QuotedData Professional
      • Shard Capital
      • ShareSoc
      • Shore Capital
      • Singer Capital Markets
      • SP Angel
      • Stanford Capital Partners
      • Stifel FirstEnergy
      • Stockdale Securities
      • Tamesis Partners
      • Tennyson Securities
      • The Life Sciences Division
      • Turner Pope Investments
      • VSA Capital
      • Whitman Howard
      • xxxxxx_deleted
      • Yellowstone Advisory
      • Zeus Capital
    • Institutional Offering
      • Fox Davies Capital
      • ABG Sundal Collier
      • ACF Equity Research
      • Alternative Resource Capital
      • Arctic Securities
      • Arden Partners
      • Auctus Advisors
      • BNP Paribas Exane
      • Bondcritic
      • Canaccord Genuity
      • Capital Access Group
      • Capital Link
      • Cavendish
      • Couloir Capital
      • Degroof Petercam
      • Dowgate Capital
      • Edison
      • First Berlin
      • First Equity
      • First Sentinel
      • Five Minute Pitch TV
      • Fundamental Research Corp
      • Galliano’s Latin Notes
      • GBC AG
      • Golden Section Capital
      • Goodbody
      • Greenwood Capital Partners
      • Hannam & Partners
      • Holland Advisors
      • Hybridan
      • InterAxS Global
      • Investec Bank
      • Kepler | Trust Intelligence
      • Longspur Clean Energy
      • Numis
      • NuWays
      • OAK Securities
      • Oberon Capital
      • Panmure Liberum
      • Peel Hunt
      • QuotedData
      • QuotedData Professional
      • Research Dynamics
      • Research Tree
      • Shard Capital
      • Shore Capital
      • Sidoti & Company
      • Singer Capital Markets
      • Small Cap Consumer Research LLC
      • SP Angel
      • Stanford Capital Partners
      • Stifel
      • StockBox
      • Tamesis Partners
      • Tennyson Securities
      • The AIC
      • The Business Magazine Group
      • The Life Sciences Division
      • Tring Triangle
      • ValueTrack
      • Velocity Trade
      • VSA Capital
      • Winterflood Securities
      • World Platinum Investment Council
      • Zacks Small Cap Research
      • Zeus Capital
  • Contact
  • Sign Up
  • Sign In