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  • 06 Jan 2026

2026 Outlook: We Forecast Strong Earnings Growth From Recent Contract Wins; New Skip Tracing Contract Could Facilitate ISAP, Detention Growth; Balance Sheet Improved; Maintain $27 Target


The GEO Group (GEO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Brendan McCarthy, CFA

    • 10 pages


 

GEO remains well positioned to aid ICE with its immigration objectives, which we expect to be the company's primary growth driver. GEO announced that it was awarded a two-year, $121 million contract by ICE for the provision of skip tracing services. Though the case volume and contract economics are unclear at this point, we think the new business line could foster a natural transition into detention or electronic monitoring. Our 2026 outlook calls for 39% EPS growth, driven by incremental revenue from recent contract wins as population levels normalize. Our estimates reflect stable Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) participant counts (under 200,000) and exclude the potential reactivation of GEO's 6,000 idle beds. Our 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate is $514 million, up 12% from an estimated $461 million in 2025. Potential facility reactivations under new contracts, materially higher ISAP volume, and/or future share buybacks represent potential upside catalysts to our estimates. GEO continues to successfully deleverage the balance sheet, with leverage at 3.2x at 3Q:25. Given the current share price range and the $500 million authorization, we expect the company to opportunistically repurchase shares in 2026. Under our balance sheet assumptions and 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $514 million, GEO shares are currently trading around 7x EV/EBITDA, below the 10x five-year average, implying attractive upside. We maintain our $27 price target, based on 18x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.51. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.

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2026 Outlook: We Forecast Strong Earnings Growth From Recent Contract Wins; New Skip Tracing Contract Could Facilitate ISAP, Detention Growth; Balance Sheet Improved; Maintain $27 Target


The GEO Group (GEO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 06 Jan 2026
  • Author: Brendan McCarthy, CFA
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


GEO remains well positioned to aid ICE with its immigration objectives, which we expect to be the company's primary growth driver. GEO announced that it was awarded a two-year, $121 million contract by ICE for the provision of skip tracing services. Though the case volume and contract economics are unclear at this point, we think the new business line could foster a natural transition into detention or electronic monitoring. Our 2026 outlook calls for 39% EPS growth, driven by incremental revenue from recent contract wins as population levels normalize. Our estimates reflect stable Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) participant counts (under 200,000) and exclude the potential reactivation of GEO's 6,000 idle beds. Our 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate is $514 million, up 12% from an estimated $461 million in 2025. Potential facility reactivations under new contracts, materially higher ISAP volume, and/or future share buybacks represent potential upside catalysts to our estimates. GEO continues to successfully deleverage the balance sheet, with leverage at 3.2x at 3Q:25. Given the current share price range and the $500 million authorization, we expect the company to opportunistically repurchase shares in 2026. Under our balance sheet assumptions and 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $514 million, GEO shares are currently trading around 7x EV/EBITDA, below the 10x five-year average, implying attractive upside. We maintain our $27 price target, based on 18x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.51. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.

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GEO Awarded ISAP V Contract, A Key Win; Positive Outlook Backed By Potential Facility Reactivations, In Our View; Balance Sheet Improving; Maintain Estimates, $37 Price Target

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GEO Announces Three New Contracts To Manage Facilities in Florida; Recent Contract Wins Underpin Momentum And Incremental Revenue Visibility, In Our View; Maintain $37 Price Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company
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