GEO posted 3Q:25 results that outpaced our estimates. The company updated 2025 guidance to reflect lower pricing in the new ISAP contract, but noted a favorable technology/monitoring mix could improve the economics, should volume increase. 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered to $455-$465 million (from $465-$490 million). Adjusted EPS guidance was narrowed to $0.84-$0.87 (from $0.84-$0.94). We lower our 2026 estimates to reflect the uncertain timing of potential reactivations of idle facilities. Though we expect GEO's idle detention capacity will aid ICE in reaching 100,000 operational beds, recent developments have clouded timing. Our estimates exclude the potential reactivation of GEO's 6,000 idle beds. Our newly introduced 2027 estimates incorporate stable detention populations, driving 4% revenue growth and a modest margin improvement on lower facility startup costs impacting 2025/2026. As with 2026, our 2027 estimates reflect stable ISAP participant counts of under 200,000. Potential facility reactivations under new contracts, materially higher ISAP volume, and/or future share buybacks are significant upside catalysts to our outlook. GEO continues to execute on deleveraging the balance sheet, with leverage at 3.2x at 3Q:25. The company repurchased about $42 million of shares in 3Q:25 and increased its buyback authorization to $500 million from $300 million. Under our balance sheet assumptions and 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $514 million, GEO shares are currently trading around 7x EV/EBITDA, below the 10x five-year average, implying attractive upside. Our lower price target of $27 (from $37) reflects the effect of lower reactivation visibility on our forward estimates. Our price target is now based on 18x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.51 (was 18x our 2026 EPS of $2.06). Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.