GEO remains well positioned to aid ICE with its immigration objectives, which we expect to be the company's primary growth driver.
A potential government shutdown could cause a delay in additional contract awards for GEO. Yet, as an essential public service provider, we see minimal effect on GEO's current operations, other than a potential cash flow mismatch and temporary uptick in receivables.
Despite the timing uncertainty of the annual appropriations bill for the DHS, ICE has ample funding available from the July reconciliation bill ($45 billion for detention).
We estimate 4Q:25 EPS rose 93% year over year to $0.25 as population intake continues across recently reactivated ICE facilities. For 2025, our EPS estimate is $0.85, up 14% from 2024, and comes within the company's $0.84-$0.87 guidance.
GEO's recent contract wins support our 2026 outlook, represented by about $460 million in incremental annualized contracted revenue that should normalize throughout the year.
Potential facility reactivations under new contracts (about 6,000 idle beds available), materially higher ISAP volume, and/or future share buybacks represent potential upside catalysts to our estimates.
GEO recently improved its balance sheet flexibility by amending its revolving credit facility capacity to $550 million from $450 million, effective 1Q:26. We estimate net leverage will step down to around 3.2x-3.3x in 2025.
We maintain our $27 price target, based on 18x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.51. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.
29 Jan 2026
We Estimate 14% EPS Growth In 2025 From Facility Intake; Outlook Backed By Recent Contract Wins Worth $460 Million In Incremental Revenue; Note Credit Facility Increase; Maintain $27 Target
Sign up for free to access
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
We Estimate 14% EPS Growth In 2025 From Facility Intake; Outlook Backed By Recent Contract Wins Worth $460 Million In Incremental Revenue; Note Credit Facility Increase; Maintain $27 Target
GEO remains well positioned to aid ICE with its immigration objectives, which we expect to be the company's primary growth driver.
A potential government shutdown could cause a delay in additional contract awards for GEO. Yet, as an essential public service provider, we see minimal effect on GEO's current operations, other than a potential cash flow mismatch and temporary uptick in receivables.
Despite the timing uncertainty of the annual appropriations bill for the DHS, ICE has ample funding available from the July reconciliation bill ($45 billion for detention).
We estimate 4Q:25 EPS rose 93% year over year to $0.25 as population intake continues across recently reactivated ICE facilities. For 2025, our EPS estimate is $0.85, up 14% from 2024, and comes within the company's $0.84-$0.87 guidance.
GEO's recent contract wins support our 2026 outlook, represented by about $460 million in incremental annualized contracted revenue that should normalize throughout the year.
Potential facility reactivations under new contracts (about 6,000 idle beds available), materially higher ISAP volume, and/or future share buybacks represent potential upside catalysts to our estimates.
GEO recently improved its balance sheet flexibility by amending its revolving credit facility capacity to $550 million from $450 million, effective 1Q:26. We estimate net leverage will step down to around 3.2x-3.3x in 2025.
We maintain our $27 price target, based on 18x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.51. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.