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  • 09 Aug 2025

Trim Price Target To $37 (From $46); Lower Estimates To Reflect Steady ISAP Participation; Detentions Continue Upward Trend; 2025 Guidance Increased; Highlight Share Buyback Program


The GEO Group (GEO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Brendan McCarthy

    • 10 pages


 

With the passing of the reconciliation bill, which appropriates a substantial increase in funding for ICE detention ($45 billion), we believe GEO will reactivate its remaining idle facilities and increase populations across its ICE facilities over time. We lower our estimates to reflect steady Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) participant counts in 2H:25, in line with GEO's expectations, as ICE prioritizes maximizing detention populations. In 2026, our forecast calls for participant count to remain under 200,000 through 4Q:26 (down from about 400,000); an increase in electronic monitoring, which we think could materialize once detention is at maximum capacity, would represent upside to our estimates. With a 20-year relationship as the sole provider of electronic monitoring to ICE, we believe GEO is well positioned to maintain operations under ISAP. In addition, with solid execution on deleveraging, our updated estimates reflect a meaningful step down in interest expense as GEO continues to pay down debt. We estimate interest expense of about $157 million in 2025 and $133 million in 2026. Following the recent announcements of new contracts and the expectation for lower interest expense, GEO raised 2025 guidance. The company expects EPS of $0.84-$0.94 (from $0.77-$0.89) on revenue of $2.56 billion ($2.53 billion). The company expects adjusted EBITDA of $465-$490 million ($465-$490 million). With leverage set to improve to less than 3.0x by 1Q:26, GEO authorized a $300 million share repurchase program, which we excluded from our estimates. GEO's 2Q:25 EPS was $0.22, ahead of our expectation, as incremental revenue from reactivated facilities was offset by start-up expenses at new ICE facilities. We lower our price target to $37 (from $46), based on 18x (was 16x) our 2026 EPS estimate of $2.06 (was $2.80). Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.

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Trim Price Target To $37 (From $46); Lower Estimates To Reflect Steady ISAP Participation; Detentions Continue Upward Trend; 2025 Guidance Increased; Highlight Share Buyback Program


The GEO Group (GEO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 09 Aug 2025
  • Author: Brendan McCarthy
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


With the passing of the reconciliation bill, which appropriates a substantial increase in funding for ICE detention ($45 billion), we believe GEO will reactivate its remaining idle facilities and increase populations across its ICE facilities over time. We lower our estimates to reflect steady Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) participant counts in 2H:25, in line with GEO's expectations, as ICE prioritizes maximizing detention populations. In 2026, our forecast calls for participant count to remain under 200,000 through 4Q:26 (down from about 400,000); an increase in electronic monitoring, which we think could materialize once detention is at maximum capacity, would represent upside to our estimates. With a 20-year relationship as the sole provider of electronic monitoring to ICE, we believe GEO is well positioned to maintain operations under ISAP. In addition, with solid execution on deleveraging, our updated estimates reflect a meaningful step down in interest expense as GEO continues to pay down debt. We estimate interest expense of about $157 million in 2025 and $133 million in 2026. Following the recent announcements of new contracts and the expectation for lower interest expense, GEO raised 2025 guidance. The company expects EPS of $0.84-$0.94 (from $0.77-$0.89) on revenue of $2.56 billion ($2.53 billion). The company expects adjusted EBITDA of $465-$490 million ($465-$490 million). With leverage set to improve to less than 3.0x by 1Q:26, GEO authorized a $300 million share repurchase program, which we excluded from our estimates. GEO's 2Q:25 EPS was $0.22, ahead of our expectation, as incremental revenue from reactivated facilities was offset by start-up expenses at new ICE facilities. We lower our price target to $37 (from $46), based on 18x (was 16x) our 2026 EPS estimate of $2.06 (was $2.80). Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.

More Content

More Content

2025 Results In Line With Estimates; Recent Pullback Is A Buying Opportunity, In Our View; Note CEO Transition; Improved Balance Sheet Supports More Share Buybacks; Maintain $27 Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

Highlight $45 Billion In Detention Funding, Potential For ISAP To Benefit From Reprogramming; Note Recent Contract Wins; Upbeat On Debt Paydown Path; Maintain Estimates, $46 Price Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

We Estimate 14% EPS Growth In 2025 From Facility Intake; Outlook Backed By Recent Contract Wins Worth $460 Million In Incremental Revenue; Note Credit Facility Increase; Maintain $27 Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

GEO Announces Three New Contracts To Manage Facilities in Florida; Recent Contract Wins Underpin Momentum And Incremental Revenue Visibility, In Our View; Maintain $37 Price Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

2026 Outlook: We Forecast Strong Earnings Growth From Recent Contract Wins; New Skip Tracing Contract Could Facilitate ISAP, Detention Growth; Balance Sheet Improved; Maintain $27 Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company
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