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  • 09 Aug 2025

Trim Price Target To $37 (From $46); Lower Estimates To Reflect Steady ISAP Participation; Detentions Continue Upward Trend; 2025 Guidance Increased; Highlight Share Buyback Program


The GEO Group (GEO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Brendan McCarthy

    • 10 pages


 

With the passing of the reconciliation bill, which appropriates a substantial increase in funding for ICE detention ($45 billion), we believe GEO will reactivate its remaining idle facilities and increase populations across its ICE facilities over time. We lower our estimates to reflect steady Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) participant counts in 2H:25, in line with GEO's expectations, as ICE prioritizes maximizing detention populations. In 2026, our forecast calls for participant count to remain under 200,000 through 4Q:26 (down from about 400,000); an increase in electronic monitoring, which we think could materialize once detention is at maximum capacity, would represent upside to our estimates. With a 20-year relationship as the sole provider of electronic monitoring to ICE, we believe GEO is well positioned to maintain operations under ISAP. In addition, with solid execution on deleveraging, our updated estimates reflect a meaningful step down in interest expense as GEO continues to pay down debt. We estimate interest expense of about $157 million in 2025 and $133 million in 2026. Following the recent announcements of new contracts and the expectation for lower interest expense, GEO raised 2025 guidance. The company expects EPS of $0.84-$0.94 (from $0.77-$0.89) on revenue of $2.56 billion ($2.53 billion). The company expects adjusted EBITDA of $465-$490 million ($465-$490 million). With leverage set to improve to less than 3.0x by 1Q:26, GEO authorized a $300 million share repurchase program, which we excluded from our estimates. GEO's 2Q:25 EPS was $0.22, ahead of our expectation, as incremental revenue from reactivated facilities was offset by start-up expenses at new ICE facilities. We lower our price target to $37 (from $46), based on 18x (was 16x) our 2026 EPS estimate of $2.06 (was $2.80). Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.

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Trim Price Target To $37 (From $46); Lower Estimates To Reflect Steady ISAP Participation; Detentions Continue Upward Trend; 2025 Guidance Increased; Highlight Share Buyback Program


The GEO Group (GEO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 09 Aug 2025
  • Author: Brendan McCarthy
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


With the passing of the reconciliation bill, which appropriates a substantial increase in funding for ICE detention ($45 billion), we believe GEO will reactivate its remaining idle facilities and increase populations across its ICE facilities over time. We lower our estimates to reflect steady Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) participant counts in 2H:25, in line with GEO's expectations, as ICE prioritizes maximizing detention populations. In 2026, our forecast calls for participant count to remain under 200,000 through 4Q:26 (down from about 400,000); an increase in electronic monitoring, which we think could materialize once detention is at maximum capacity, would represent upside to our estimates. With a 20-year relationship as the sole provider of electronic monitoring to ICE, we believe GEO is well positioned to maintain operations under ISAP. In addition, with solid execution on deleveraging, our updated estimates reflect a meaningful step down in interest expense as GEO continues to pay down debt. We estimate interest expense of about $157 million in 2025 and $133 million in 2026. Following the recent announcements of new contracts and the expectation for lower interest expense, GEO raised 2025 guidance. The company expects EPS of $0.84-$0.94 (from $0.77-$0.89) on revenue of $2.56 billion ($2.53 billion). The company expects adjusted EBITDA of $465-$490 million ($465-$490 million). With leverage set to improve to less than 3.0x by 1Q:26, GEO authorized a $300 million share repurchase program, which we excluded from our estimates. GEO's 2Q:25 EPS was $0.22, ahead of our expectation, as incremental revenue from reactivated facilities was offset by start-up expenses at new ICE facilities. We lower our price target to $37 (from $46), based on 18x (was 16x) our 2026 EPS estimate of $2.06 (was $2.80). Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.

More Content

More Content

Strong 1Q:26 Results Reflect Lower Expenses, Better ISAP Mix; 2026 Guidance Increased; Raise 2026, Maintain 2027 Estimates; Asset Sales Could Drive Substantial Value; Maintain $27 Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

Highlight $45 Billion In Detention Funding, Potential For ISAP To Benefit From Reprogramming; Note Recent Contract Wins; Upbeat On Debt Paydown Path; Maintain Estimates, $46 Price Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

We See Momentum Building For Owned Facility Asset Sales; Highlight Replacement Cost Value Proposition; Estimate Strong Secure Services Results In 1Q:26; Maintain Estimates, $27 Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

GEO Announces Three New Contracts To Manage Facilities in Florida; Recent Contract Wins Underpin Momentum And Incremental Revenue Visibility, In Our View; Maintain $37 Price Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

Takeaways On ICE's New Detention Initiative: We Expect Total ICE Capacity To Include Both Public And Private Sector Beds; Initiative Could Influence Asset Sales; Maintain $27 Price Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company
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