Yesterday, GEO announced that the company is positioned to receive new managed-only contracts for three correctional and rehabilitation facilities in Florida, which are expected to become effective July 1, 2026.
The new contracts should generate around $100 million in incremental annualized revenue with EBITDA margins ranging from 10%-15%.
Separately, in August, ICE issued a RFP for the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) contract with proposals due by September 1, 2025; GEO submitted a bid as the incumbent. Additional details could surface around the end of September.
We maintain our Electronic Monitoring estimates, which reflect steady ISAP participant counts through 2H:25 as interior immigration policy centers on populating around 100,000 ICE detention beds, potentially by year end.
With $45 billion in funding for ICE detention from the recent reconciliation bill, we think GEO will reactivate its remaining idle facilities and increase populations across its ICE facilities over time. Our estimates include GEO realizing about $310 million in incremental annualized revenue from the reactivation of 5,900 idle secure service beds.
The balance sheet has meaningfully improved, and we estimate leverage (currently around 3.3x) will decline to under 3.0x by 1Q:26. We note that GEO authorized a $300 million share repurchase program in 3Q:25.
We maintain our $37 price target, based on 18x our 2026 EPS estimate of $2.06. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.
17 Sep 2025
GEO Announces Three New Contracts To Manage Facilities in Florida; Recent Contract Wins Underpin Momentum And Incremental Revenue Visibility, In Our View; Maintain $37 Price Target
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GEO Announces Three New Contracts To Manage Facilities in Florida; Recent Contract Wins Underpin Momentum And Incremental Revenue Visibility, In Our View; Maintain $37 Price Target
Yesterday, GEO announced that the company is positioned to receive new managed-only contracts for three correctional and rehabilitation facilities in Florida, which are expected to become effective July 1, 2026.
The new contracts should generate around $100 million in incremental annualized revenue with EBITDA margins ranging from 10%-15%.
Separately, in August, ICE issued a RFP for the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) contract with proposals due by September 1, 2025; GEO submitted a bid as the incumbent. Additional details could surface around the end of September.
We maintain our Electronic Monitoring estimates, which reflect steady ISAP participant counts through 2H:25 as interior immigration policy centers on populating around 100,000 ICE detention beds, potentially by year end.
With $45 billion in funding for ICE detention from the recent reconciliation bill, we think GEO will reactivate its remaining idle facilities and increase populations across its ICE facilities over time. Our estimates include GEO realizing about $310 million in incremental annualized revenue from the reactivation of 5,900 idle secure service beds.
The balance sheet has meaningfully improved, and we estimate leverage (currently around 3.3x) will decline to under 3.0x by 1Q:26. We note that GEO authorized a $300 million share repurchase program in 3Q:25.
We maintain our $37 price target, based on 18x our 2026 EPS estimate of $2.06. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.