With the passing of the reconciliation bill, which appropriates a substantial increase in funding for ICE detention ($45 billion), we believe GEO will reactivate its remaining idle facilities and increase populations across its ICE facilites over time.
To date, GEO has reactivated three previously idled facilities (Delaney Hall, North Lake, and D. Ray James) under new or modified contracts with ICE, representing about $196 million in total incremental annualized revenue ($227 million assuming increased population at Adelanto).
We anticipate GEO will update 2025 guidance (which excludes unannounced contract awards) to reflect the D. Ray James activation and higher intake at Adelanto, as well as incremental interest expense savings following the Lawton facility sale.
We expect GEO to prioritize debt reduction and improve leverage to around 3.0x by year end 2025, factoring in about $222 million of debt repayment from the Lawton facility sale.
Our 2Q:25 EPS estimate of $0.16 is down from the prior year period due to higher operating expenses, despite broadly positive revenue trends across secure services and electronic monitoring.
We maintain our estimates and $46 price target on GEO shares, based on 16x our 2026 EPS estimate of $2.80. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.
09 Aug 2025
Highlight $45 Billion In Detention Funding, Potential For ISAP To Benefit From Reprogramming; Note Recent Contract Wins; Upbeat On Debt Paydown Path; Maintain Estimates, $46 Price Target
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Highlight $45 Billion In Detention Funding, Potential For ISAP To Benefit From Reprogramming; Note Recent Contract Wins; Upbeat On Debt Paydown Path; Maintain Estimates, $46 Price Target
With the passing of the reconciliation bill, which appropriates a substantial increase in funding for ICE detention ($45 billion), we believe GEO will reactivate its remaining idle facilities and increase populations across its ICE facilites over time.
To date, GEO has reactivated three previously idled facilities (Delaney Hall, North Lake, and D. Ray James) under new or modified contracts with ICE, representing about $196 million in total incremental annualized revenue ($227 million assuming increased population at Adelanto).
We anticipate GEO will update 2025 guidance (which excludes unannounced contract awards) to reflect the D. Ray James activation and higher intake at Adelanto, as well as incremental interest expense savings following the Lawton facility sale.
We expect GEO to prioritize debt reduction and improve leverage to around 3.0x by year end 2025, factoring in about $222 million of debt repayment from the Lawton facility sale.
Our 2Q:25 EPS estimate of $0.16 is down from the prior year period due to higher operating expenses, despite broadly positive revenue trends across secure services and electronic monitoring.
We maintain our estimates and $46 price target on GEO shares, based on 16x our 2026 EPS estimate of $2.80. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.