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  • 09 Aug 2025

Highlight $45 Billion In Detention Funding, Potential For ISAP To Benefit From Reprogramming; Note Recent Contract Wins; Upbeat On Debt Paydown Path; Maintain Estimates, $46 Price Target


The GEO Group (GEO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Brendan McCarthy

    • 10 pages


 

With the passing of the reconciliation bill, which appropriates a substantial increase in funding for ICE detention ($45 billion), we believe GEO will reactivate its remaining idle facilities and increase populations across its ICE facilites over time. To date, GEO has reactivated three previously idled facilities (Delaney Hall, North Lake, and D. Ray James) under new or modified contracts with ICE, representing about $196 million in total incremental annualized revenue ($227 million assuming increased population at Adelanto). We anticipate GEO will update 2025 guidance (which excludes unannounced contract awards) to reflect the D. Ray James activation and higher intake at Adelanto, as well as incremental interest expense savings following the Lawton facility sale. We expect GEO to prioritize debt reduction and improve leverage to around 3.0x by year end 2025, factoring in about $222 million of debt repayment from the Lawton facility sale. Our 2Q:25 EPS estimate of $0.16 is down from the prior year period due to higher operating expenses, despite broadly positive revenue trends across secure services and electronic monitoring. We maintain our estimates and $46 price target on GEO shares, based on 16x our 2026 EPS estimate of $2.80. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.

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Highlight $45 Billion In Detention Funding, Potential For ISAP To Benefit From Reprogramming; Note Recent Contract Wins; Upbeat On Debt Paydown Path; Maintain Estimates, $46 Price Target


The GEO Group (GEO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 09 Aug 2025
  • Author: Brendan McCarthy
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


With the passing of the reconciliation bill, which appropriates a substantial increase in funding for ICE detention ($45 billion), we believe GEO will reactivate its remaining idle facilities and increase populations across its ICE facilites over time. To date, GEO has reactivated three previously idled facilities (Delaney Hall, North Lake, and D. Ray James) under new or modified contracts with ICE, representing about $196 million in total incremental annualized revenue ($227 million assuming increased population at Adelanto). We anticipate GEO will update 2025 guidance (which excludes unannounced contract awards) to reflect the D. Ray James activation and higher intake at Adelanto, as well as incremental interest expense savings following the Lawton facility sale. We expect GEO to prioritize debt reduction and improve leverage to around 3.0x by year end 2025, factoring in about $222 million of debt repayment from the Lawton facility sale. Our 2Q:25 EPS estimate of $0.16 is down from the prior year period due to higher operating expenses, despite broadly positive revenue trends across secure services and electronic monitoring. We maintain our estimates and $46 price target on GEO shares, based on 16x our 2026 EPS estimate of $2.80. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.

More Content

More Content

2025 Results In Line With Estimates; Recent Pullback Is A Buying Opportunity, In Our View; Note CEO Transition; Improved Balance Sheet Supports More Share Buybacks; Maintain $27 Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

Trim Price Target To $37 (From $46); Lower Estimates To Reflect Steady ISAP Participation; Detentions Continue Upward Trend; 2025 Guidance Increased; Highlight Share Buyback Program

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

We Estimate 14% EPS Growth In 2025 From Facility Intake; Outlook Backed By Recent Contract Wins Worth $460 Million In Incremental Revenue; Note Credit Facility Increase; Maintain $27 Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

GEO Announces Three New Contracts To Manage Facilities in Florida; Recent Contract Wins Underpin Momentum And Incremental Revenue Visibility, In Our View; Maintain $37 Price Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company

2026 Outlook: We Forecast Strong Earnings Growth From Recent Contract Wins; New Skip Tracing Contract Could Facilitate ISAP, Detention Growth; Balance Sheet Improved; Maintain $27 Target

Companies: The GEO Group

Sidoti & Company
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