GEO reported 4Q:25 EPS of $0.25, in line with our estimate and up 95% from $0.13 in 4Q:24. Strong 16% revenue growth and lower interest expense drove the year-over-year increase. For 2025, EPS was $0.86, up from $0.75 in 2024.
GEO announced that CEO J. David Donahue will retire on February 28, 2026, with Founder and Executive Chairman Dr. George Zoley set to reassume the CEO role beginning March 1, 2026, under an amended agreement running through April 2029. Dr. Zoley, who founded GEO in 1984, has remained operationally involved as executive chairman, particularly in driving new business.
We trim our 2026 EPS estimate to $1.04 (from $1.18), reflecting (unchanged) 10% revenue growth and higher operating expenses as GEO incurs costs to prepare facilities for increased operational activity. Our estimates exclude the effect of the potential reactivation of idle facilities and any meaningful uptick in Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) volume.
2026 guidance calls for 14% revenue growth to $3.0 billion at the midpoint, driven by a full year of 2025 contract wins. The company expects EPS of $0.99-$1.07, up 20% at the midpoint from 2025. GEO expects adjusted EBITDA of $490-$510 million, up 8% at the midpoint (we estimate $502 million).
Potential facility reactivations under new contracts (about 6,000 idle beds available), materially higher ISAP volume, and/or meaningful share buybacks represent potential upside catalysts to our estimates.
With estimated leverage less than 3.0x throughout 2026, GEO will prioritize share buybacks, in our view. GEO bought back nearly three million shares in 4Q:25 ($49 million) and has $409 million remaining on the current authorization.
We maintain our $27 price target, based on 18x our lower 2027 EPS estimate of $1.46 (was $1.51). Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.
13 Feb 2026
2025 Results In Line With Estimates; Recent Pullback Is A Buying Opportunity, In Our View; Note CEO Transition; Improved Balance Sheet Supports More Share Buybacks; Maintain $27 Target
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2025 Results In Line With Estimates; Recent Pullback Is A Buying Opportunity, In Our View; Note CEO Transition; Improved Balance Sheet Supports More Share Buybacks; Maintain $27 Target
GEO reported 4Q:25 EPS of $0.25, in line with our estimate and up 95% from $0.13 in 4Q:24. Strong 16% revenue growth and lower interest expense drove the year-over-year increase. For 2025, EPS was $0.86, up from $0.75 in 2024.
GEO announced that CEO J. David Donahue will retire on February 28, 2026, with Founder and Executive Chairman Dr. George Zoley set to reassume the CEO role beginning March 1, 2026, under an amended agreement running through April 2029. Dr. Zoley, who founded GEO in 1984, has remained operationally involved as executive chairman, particularly in driving new business.
We trim our 2026 EPS estimate to $1.04 (from $1.18), reflecting (unchanged) 10% revenue growth and higher operating expenses as GEO incurs costs to prepare facilities for increased operational activity. Our estimates exclude the effect of the potential reactivation of idle facilities and any meaningful uptick in Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) volume.
2026 guidance calls for 14% revenue growth to $3.0 billion at the midpoint, driven by a full year of 2025 contract wins. The company expects EPS of $0.99-$1.07, up 20% at the midpoint from 2025. GEO expects adjusted EBITDA of $490-$510 million, up 8% at the midpoint (we estimate $502 million).
Potential facility reactivations under new contracts (about 6,000 idle beds available), materially higher ISAP volume, and/or meaningful share buybacks represent potential upside catalysts to our estimates.
With estimated leverage less than 3.0x throughout 2026, GEO will prioritize share buybacks, in our view. GEO bought back nearly three million shares in 4Q:25 ($49 million) and has $409 million remaining on the current authorization.
We maintain our $27 price target, based on 18x our lower 2027 EPS estimate of $1.46 (was $1.51). Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.