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  • 06 Nov 2025

Low Volumes Afflict A Tough 2025; Strength In Cellulose Specialties, Cost Discipline, And Strategic Clarity Build Confidence In Outlook For 2026 And 2027; Raise Price Target To $9 (From $6)


Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Daniel Harriman

    • 10 pages


 

RYAM reported 3Q:25 revenue of $353 million, down $48 million year over year, as lower Cellulose Specialties (CS) volumes and ongoing weakness in Paperboard and High-Yield Pulp (HYP) offset solid pricing gains. Profitability declined from the prior year, though CS margins improved to 32% on stronger pricing and cost efficiencies. Management reiterated confidence in the CS franchise, supported by tight global supply, limited new capacity, and a significant 2026 price increase aimed at recapturing inflationary value. The company continues executing on $30 million of cost savings, CS requalification, and targeted investments to expand margins through 2027. We lower our 2025 sales forecast to $1.42 billion (from $1.50 billion) and project an adjusted loss per share of $6.16 compared to our earlier estimate for a loss of $6.13. For 2026, we reduce sales to $1.515 billion (from $1.575 billion), but raise our EPS estimate to $0.46 (from $0.14), as cost savings, stronger CS pricing, and Biomaterials growth offset weakness in non-core operations. For 2027, we model sales of $1.615 billion and EPS of $0.96, with higher free cash flow (FCF) reflecting operating leverage, a richer mix, and stronger contributions from the company's core business. Our forecasts call for $105 million in FCF for 2026 and $125 million for 2027. Temiscaming remains central to RYAM's turnaround efforts, with management targeting cost reductions, operational efficiency, and new product introductions to restore profitability and cash flow ahead of a potential sale. RYAM ended 3Q:25 with $140 million of liquidity, including $77 million of cash, and a net secured leverage ratio of 4.1x, below its 5.0x covenant. We increase our price target on RYAM shares to $9 (from $6), based on an intact 11x enterprise value to free cash flow on our 2027 forecast of $125 million in FCF. Our target reflects about 10x our newly introduced 2027 $0.96 EPS estimate. Our prior $6 target was based on an 11x enterprise value to free cash flow on our 2026 forecast of $100 million in FCF. Progress in Cellulose Specialties, momentum in Biomaterials, and improving financial discipline support our moderate risk rating.

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Low Volumes Afflict A Tough 2025; Strength In Cellulose Specialties, Cost Discipline, And Strategic Clarity Build Confidence In Outlook For 2026 And 2027; Raise Price Target To $9 (From $6)


Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 06 Nov 2025
  • Author: Daniel Harriman
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


RYAM reported 3Q:25 revenue of $353 million, down $48 million year over year, as lower Cellulose Specialties (CS) volumes and ongoing weakness in Paperboard and High-Yield Pulp (HYP) offset solid pricing gains. Profitability declined from the prior year, though CS margins improved to 32% on stronger pricing and cost efficiencies. Management reiterated confidence in the CS franchise, supported by tight global supply, limited new capacity, and a significant 2026 price increase aimed at recapturing inflationary value. The company continues executing on $30 million of cost savings, CS requalification, and targeted investments to expand margins through 2027. We lower our 2025 sales forecast to $1.42 billion (from $1.50 billion) and project an adjusted loss per share of $6.16 compared to our earlier estimate for a loss of $6.13. For 2026, we reduce sales to $1.515 billion (from $1.575 billion), but raise our EPS estimate to $0.46 (from $0.14), as cost savings, stronger CS pricing, and Biomaterials growth offset weakness in non-core operations. For 2027, we model sales of $1.615 billion and EPS of $0.96, with higher free cash flow (FCF) reflecting operating leverage, a richer mix, and stronger contributions from the company's core business. Our forecasts call for $105 million in FCF for 2026 and $125 million for 2027. Temiscaming remains central to RYAM's turnaround efforts, with management targeting cost reductions, operational efficiency, and new product introductions to restore profitability and cash flow ahead of a potential sale. RYAM ended 3Q:25 with $140 million of liquidity, including $77 million of cash, and a net secured leverage ratio of 4.1x, below its 5.0x covenant. We increase our price target on RYAM shares to $9 (from $6), based on an intact 11x enterprise value to free cash flow on our 2027 forecast of $125 million in FCF. Our target reflects about 10x our newly introduced 2027 $0.96 EPS estimate. Our prior $6 target was based on an 11x enterprise value to free cash flow on our 2026 forecast of $100 million in FCF. Progress in Cellulose Specialties, momentum in Biomaterials, and improving financial discipline support our moderate risk rating.

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RYAM Share Price Doubles As Investors Anticipate A 2H:25 Recovery; Market Confidence Builds Around Management's Reaffirmed Long-Term Targets; Maintain Estimates And $6 Price Target

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