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  • 10 Aug 2025

Expect Momentum To Build In CS and Biomaterials Following 1Q Setback; Maintaining 2025-2026 Forecasts As Strategic Focus and Execution Improve; Maintain $7 Price Target


Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Daniel Harriman

    • 10 pages


 

We expect 2Q:25 results to show clear sequential improvement from a weak first quarter, which we view as a temporary setback in RYAM's broader transformation. Our model calls for $425.6 million in sales and an EPS loss of $0.11, reflecting improved execution and more stable operations across key segments. Our forecast includes 4.5% year-over-year growth in High Purity Cellulose and assumes mid-single-digit pricing gains in Cellulose Specialties (CS) with no maintenance outages expected for the balance of the year. Following lower volumes, an unfavorable product mix, and reliability issues in 1Q:25, we remain confident in the long-term value proposition of RYAM's high-grade CS portfolio. The Paperboard segment faced pressure in 1Q:25 from elevated input costs that management expects to continue in 2Q:25, driven by increased purchased pulp prices, greater allocation of custodial costs at Temiscaming, and tariff mitigation efforts. We expect cost pressures may limit near-term performance but note sequential improvement. High-Yield Pulp (HYP) remains under strain due to lower pricing and volumes from oversupply in China. We continue to view Biomaterials as a critical strategic pillar in RYAM's long-term transformation. The Tartas bioethanol facility is now operational, marking a key milestone in the company's shift toward higher-value, renewable materials. While initial financial contributions in 2025 may be modest, we expect the platform to scale over time as commercial activity ramps. The balance sheet remains stable, in our view. At quarter-end, RYAM reported $130 million in cash and a net secured leverage ratio of 2.9x. We continue to model $10 million in adjusted free cash flow (FCF) for the full year. We maintain our $7 price target, which remains based on an 11x enterprise value to FCF multiple applied to our 2026 estimate of $105 million. Progress in Cellulose Specialties, momentum in Biomaterials, and improving financial discipline support our moderate risk rating.

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Expect Momentum To Build In CS and Biomaterials Following 1Q Setback; Maintaining 2025-2026 Forecasts As Strategic Focus and Execution Improve; Maintain $7 Price Target


Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 10 Aug 2025
  • Author: Daniel Harriman
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


We expect 2Q:25 results to show clear sequential improvement from a weak first quarter, which we view as a temporary setback in RYAM's broader transformation. Our model calls for $425.6 million in sales and an EPS loss of $0.11, reflecting improved execution and more stable operations across key segments. Our forecast includes 4.5% year-over-year growth in High Purity Cellulose and assumes mid-single-digit pricing gains in Cellulose Specialties (CS) with no maintenance outages expected for the balance of the year. Following lower volumes, an unfavorable product mix, and reliability issues in 1Q:25, we remain confident in the long-term value proposition of RYAM's high-grade CS portfolio. The Paperboard segment faced pressure in 1Q:25 from elevated input costs that management expects to continue in 2Q:25, driven by increased purchased pulp prices, greater allocation of custodial costs at Temiscaming, and tariff mitigation efforts. We expect cost pressures may limit near-term performance but note sequential improvement. High-Yield Pulp (HYP) remains under strain due to lower pricing and volumes from oversupply in China. We continue to view Biomaterials as a critical strategic pillar in RYAM's long-term transformation. The Tartas bioethanol facility is now operational, marking a key milestone in the company's shift toward higher-value, renewable materials. While initial financial contributions in 2025 may be modest, we expect the platform to scale over time as commercial activity ramps. The balance sheet remains stable, in our view. At quarter-end, RYAM reported $130 million in cash and a net secured leverage ratio of 2.9x. We continue to model $10 million in adjusted free cash flow (FCF) for the full year. We maintain our $7 price target, which remains based on an 11x enterprise value to FCF multiple applied to our 2026 estimate of $105 million. Progress in Cellulose Specialties, momentum in Biomaterials, and improving financial discipline support our moderate risk rating.

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