We maintain our 3Q:25 sales estimate of $395 million and 2025 sales estimate of $1.5 billion, compared to consensus of $374 million and $1.455 billion, respectively.
1H:25 represented the trough in sales and earnings as RYAM contended with tariff-related order disruptions, operational challenges at Tartas, adverse weather, and a one-time environmental charge that prompted management to revise full-year guidance lower.
We expect a sequential rebound in 2H:25, supported by more normalized Cellulose Specialties (CS) order patterns, potential tariff tailwinds stemming from reduced imports from Norway and Brazil, and continued operational improvement.
Management expects its $24 million targeted capital investment program to unlock $30 million of annual cost savings in 2026, driven by automation, yield enhancement, and improved plant reliability, with additional projects extending into 2027 and beyond.
At Temiscaming, the company continues to execute cost-reduction and product commercialization initiatives, including new Kallima® freezer-grade paperboard, to improve profitability in Paperboard and High-Yield Pulp and better position these non-core assets for potential divestiture.
As of 2Q:25, RYAM held $71 million of cash and a net secured leverage ratio of 3.8x, comfortably within its 5.0x covenant threshold, providing balance sheet flexibility heading into 2H:25.
We maintain our $6 price target on RYAM shares for the time being, based on an 11x enterprise value to free cash flow multiple applied to our 2026 forecast of $100 million in FCF. Progress in Cellulose Specialties, momentum in Biomaterials, and improving financial discipline support our moderate risk rating.
31 Oct 2025
Operational Recovery Underway; Normalized CS Demand, Cost Savings, And Biomaterials Execution Support 2H:25 Rebound And Margin Expansion; Maintain $6 Price Target
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Operational Recovery Underway; Normalized CS Demand, Cost Savings, And Biomaterials Execution Support 2H:25 Rebound And Margin Expansion; Maintain $6 Price Target
Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
31 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Daniel Harriman -
Pages:
10 -
We maintain our 3Q:25 sales estimate of $395 million and 2025 sales estimate of $1.5 billion, compared to consensus of $374 million and $1.455 billion, respectively.
1H:25 represented the trough in sales and earnings as RYAM contended with tariff-related order disruptions, operational challenges at Tartas, adverse weather, and a one-time environmental charge that prompted management to revise full-year guidance lower.
We expect a sequential rebound in 2H:25, supported by more normalized Cellulose Specialties (CS) order patterns, potential tariff tailwinds stemming from reduced imports from Norway and Brazil, and continued operational improvement.
Management expects its $24 million targeted capital investment program to unlock $30 million of annual cost savings in 2026, driven by automation, yield enhancement, and improved plant reliability, with additional projects extending into 2027 and beyond.
At Temiscaming, the company continues to execute cost-reduction and product commercialization initiatives, including new Kallima® freezer-grade paperboard, to improve profitability in Paperboard and High-Yield Pulp and better position these non-core assets for potential divestiture.
As of 2Q:25, RYAM held $71 million of cash and a net secured leverage ratio of 3.8x, comfortably within its 5.0x covenant threshold, providing balance sheet flexibility heading into 2H:25.
We maintain our $6 price target on RYAM shares for the time being, based on an 11x enterprise value to free cash flow multiple applied to our 2026 forecast of $100 million in FCF. Progress in Cellulose Specialties, momentum in Biomaterials, and improving financial discipline support our moderate risk rating.