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  • 10 Aug 2025

Lower Near-Term Estimates On Transient 2025–2026 Headwinds; Long-Term Strategic Conviction And Upside Potential Remain Intact; Reduce Price Target to $6 (from $7)


Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Daniel Harriman

    • 10 pages


 

2Q:25 results were a sharp negative deviation from recent performance. Revenue was down $79 million year over year to $340 million. The company recorded an operating loss of $1 million, compared to operating income of $28 million in the prior-year period. Operating performance was impacted by broad-based segment weakness, compounded by tariff-related uncertainty and labor unrest at Tartas. Cellulose Specialties (CS) remains the foundation of RYAM's earnings power, though the segment was hampered by lower volumes in the quarter. Biomaterials held steady despite operational headwinds. Paperboard, and High-Yield Pulp (HYP) remained under pressure due to pricing, demand, and cost challenges. Management lowered its full-year free cash flow (FCF) guidance, now projecting negative FCF in the range of $10 million-$25 million. Segment-level guidance implies CS improvement in 2H:25, while Paperboard and HYP are expected to remain challenged. Management reiterated confidence in the company's strategy, attributing 1H:25 weakness to one-time items and outlining the path to long-term targets. Supported by tight CS market dynamics, cost savings, strategic divestitures, and internally funded biomaterials growth projects, RYAM remains on track to achieve its 2027 goals outlined at its October 2023 Investor Day. We lower our 2025 estimates to reflect 1H:25 results and revised guidance, with sales now modeled at $1.5 billion (from $1.62 billion) and FCF at negative $15 million (from $10 million). 2026 estimates are also revised lower on a more cautious recovery outlook, with sales forecast at $1.575 billion from our earlier $1.7 billion estimate and FCF down modestly to $100 million (from $105 million). The company ended the quarter with $71 million in cash on its balance sheet and a net secured leverage ratio of 3.8x, well within the 5.0x covenant threshold. We lower our price target on RYAM shares to $6 (from $7), which remains based on an 11x enterprise value to FCF multiple applied to our newly lowered 2026 FCF estimate of $100 million. Progress in CS, momentum in Biomaterials, and improving financial discipline support our moderate risk rating.

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Lower Near-Term Estimates On Transient 2025–2026 Headwinds; Long-Term Strategic Conviction And Upside Potential Remain Intact; Reduce Price Target to $6 (from $7)


Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 10 Aug 2025
  • Author: Daniel Harriman
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


2Q:25 results were a sharp negative deviation from recent performance. Revenue was down $79 million year over year to $340 million. The company recorded an operating loss of $1 million, compared to operating income of $28 million in the prior-year period. Operating performance was impacted by broad-based segment weakness, compounded by tariff-related uncertainty and labor unrest at Tartas. Cellulose Specialties (CS) remains the foundation of RYAM's earnings power, though the segment was hampered by lower volumes in the quarter. Biomaterials held steady despite operational headwinds. Paperboard, and High-Yield Pulp (HYP) remained under pressure due to pricing, demand, and cost challenges. Management lowered its full-year free cash flow (FCF) guidance, now projecting negative FCF in the range of $10 million-$25 million. Segment-level guidance implies CS improvement in 2H:25, while Paperboard and HYP are expected to remain challenged. Management reiterated confidence in the company's strategy, attributing 1H:25 weakness to one-time items and outlining the path to long-term targets. Supported by tight CS market dynamics, cost savings, strategic divestitures, and internally funded biomaterials growth projects, RYAM remains on track to achieve its 2027 goals outlined at its October 2023 Investor Day. We lower our 2025 estimates to reflect 1H:25 results and revised guidance, with sales now modeled at $1.5 billion (from $1.62 billion) and FCF at negative $15 million (from $10 million). 2026 estimates are also revised lower on a more cautious recovery outlook, with sales forecast at $1.575 billion from our earlier $1.7 billion estimate and FCF down modestly to $100 million (from $105 million). The company ended the quarter with $71 million in cash on its balance sheet and a net secured leverage ratio of 3.8x, well within the 5.0x covenant threshold. We lower our price target on RYAM shares to $6 (from $7), which remains based on an 11x enterprise value to FCF multiple applied to our newly lowered 2026 FCF estimate of $100 million. Progress in CS, momentum in Biomaterials, and improving financial discipline support our moderate risk rating.

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