Reported 3Q:25 EPS missed our estimate, due primarily to lower-than-expected equipment sales.
However, rental revenue grew 3.6%, with all rental segments reporting year-over-year gains.
Management updated full-year guidance for total revenue of $935-$955 million (from $925-$960 million) and adjusted (for one-time items, transaction costs, and non-operating transactions) EBITDA of $350-$357 million (from $347-$356 million).
Our updated EPS estimates of $6.09 (from $6.31) in 2025, $6.62 (from $6.73) in 2026 and newly introduced estimate of $7.07 in 2027 imply annual EPS growth of 16.5%, 8.8% and 6.7%, respectively.
Our free cash flow per share estimates of $6.25 (from $6.52) in 2025, $7.06 (from $7.18) in 2026 and $7.63 in 2027 imply respective FCF yields of 5.2%, 5.9% and 6.3%.
We maintain our $148 price target, which is now based on 21x our 2027 EPS estimate of $7.07. Our price target was previously based on 22x our prior 2026 EPS estimate of $6.73. The reduced multiple is due to the extended time horizon with the introduction of our 2027 estimates. Free cash flow, the balance sheet and the long-term dividend growth profile support the multiple and our moderate risk rating, in our view.
McGrath RentCorp will be hosting 1x1 meetings at the Sidoti Year-End Virtual Investor Conference on December 10-11.
24 Oct 2025
Reported 3Q:25 EPS Miss Our Estimate Due To Lower Equipment Sales; Management Guidance, Free Cash Flow And Our 2025-2027 Estimates Support Our $148 Price Target, In Our View
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Reported 3Q:25 EPS Miss Our Estimate Due To Lower Equipment Sales; Management Guidance, Free Cash Flow And Our 2025-2027 Estimates Support Our $148 Price Target, In Our View
Reported 3Q:25 EPS missed our estimate, due primarily to lower-than-expected equipment sales.
However, rental revenue grew 3.6%, with all rental segments reporting year-over-year gains.
Management updated full-year guidance for total revenue of $935-$955 million (from $925-$960 million) and adjusted (for one-time items, transaction costs, and non-operating transactions) EBITDA of $350-$357 million (from $347-$356 million).
Our updated EPS estimates of $6.09 (from $6.31) in 2025, $6.62 (from $6.73) in 2026 and newly introduced estimate of $7.07 in 2027 imply annual EPS growth of 16.5%, 8.8% and 6.7%, respectively.
Our free cash flow per share estimates of $6.25 (from $6.52) in 2025, $7.06 (from $7.18) in 2026 and $7.63 in 2027 imply respective FCF yields of 5.2%, 5.9% and 6.3%.
We maintain our $148 price target, which is now based on 21x our 2027 EPS estimate of $7.07. Our price target was previously based on 22x our prior 2026 EPS estimate of $6.73. The reduced multiple is due to the extended time horizon with the introduction of our 2027 estimates. Free cash flow, the balance sheet and the long-term dividend growth profile support the multiple and our moderate risk rating, in our view.
McGrath RentCorp will be hosting 1x1 meetings at the Sidoti Year-End Virtual Investor Conference on December 10-11.