TWI reported year-over-year revenue growth of almost 3% to $505 million, near our forecast, as stronger EMC (Earthmoving/Construction) sales offset a modest Consumer segment decline. Flat Ag revenue was essentially in line.
Modestly wider gross margin in 1Q:26 was partially offset by slightly raised opex (including R&D). Breakeven earnings matched our forecast.
We expect TWI to benefit through 2026 from improving EMC results due to overall better market conditions and the strength of the company's European operations.
We also model rising Ag aftermarket demand, underpinned by the duration of the tractor replacement downcycle and growing awareness of fuel efficiency benefits of the company's low sidewall (LSW) tires.
However, we trim our 2Q:26 margin projections, in part due to inflationary pressures (which we expect the company to recoup in future quarters).
We raise our 4Q:26 estimates as we model the beginning of a modest ag recovery, supported by an aging tractor fleet and lower OEM and dealer inventories.
Farmer sentiment has improved for the last two months while remaining below year-earlier levels, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
The typical 1Q increase in working capital drove net leverage back above 4x at the end of 1Q;26. We expect the normal second half reversal will result in net leverage back below 4x year end.
The company maintains strong liquidity, including $171 million in cash and $50 million available under its credit facility.
Our $10 price target is based on 12x our unchanged 2027 free cash flow per share (FCFPS) estimate of $0.80. We expect the eventual recovery in Ag will be the catalyst for the stock, which currently trades near book value. Our moderate risk rating is based on strong brand awareness and TWI's longstanding dealer network.
01 May 2026
1Q:26 Results Largely In Line; Trim 2Q:26 Estimates Partially On Inflationary Pressures But Raise 4Q:26 Forecast Ahead Of Expected Modest 2027 Ag Recovery; Maintain $10 Price Target
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1Q:26 Results Largely In Line; Trim 2Q:26 Estimates Partially On Inflationary Pressures But Raise 4Q:26 Forecast Ahead Of Expected Modest 2027 Ag Recovery; Maintain $10 Price Target
TWI reported year-over-year revenue growth of almost 3% to $505 million, near our forecast, as stronger EMC (Earthmoving/Construction) sales offset a modest Consumer segment decline. Flat Ag revenue was essentially in line.
Modestly wider gross margin in 1Q:26 was partially offset by slightly raised opex (including R&D). Breakeven earnings matched our forecast.
We expect TWI to benefit through 2026 from improving EMC results due to overall better market conditions and the strength of the company's European operations.
We also model rising Ag aftermarket demand, underpinned by the duration of the tractor replacement downcycle and growing awareness of fuel efficiency benefits of the company's low sidewall (LSW) tires.
However, we trim our 2Q:26 margin projections, in part due to inflationary pressures (which we expect the company to recoup in future quarters).
We raise our 4Q:26 estimates as we model the beginning of a modest ag recovery, supported by an aging tractor fleet and lower OEM and dealer inventories.
Farmer sentiment has improved for the last two months while remaining below year-earlier levels, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
The typical 1Q increase in working capital drove net leverage back above 4x at the end of 1Q;26. We expect the normal second half reversal will result in net leverage back below 4x year end.
The company maintains strong liquidity, including $171 million in cash and $50 million available under its credit facility.
Our $10 price target is based on 12x our unchanged 2027 free cash flow per share (FCFPS) estimate of $0.80. We expect the eventual recovery in Ag will be the catalyst for the stock, which currently trades near book value. Our moderate risk rating is based on strong brand awareness and TWI's longstanding dealer network.