We project about 2% year-over-year revenue growth to $501 million in 1Q:26 (near the midpoint of management's guidance of $490-$500 million) on recovering EMC (Earthmoving/Construction) demand and flat Ag sales.
We forecast stable margins from 1Q:25 on modest revenue improvement and essentially flat EPS. Ongoing efficiency gains, cost reductions or mix could drive a slightly better result, in our view.
We note last month's TWI announcement of domestic tire production consolidation (closure of a facility in Jackson, TN) as part of its continued efficiency program.
And we highlight margin gains by TWI since the last downcycle, in part supported by the addition of Carlstar and ongoing efficiency improvements.
The stock appears attractively valued, in our view, at near book value, ahead of an eventual ag recovery, underpinned by an aging tractor fleet. We also note Titan's strong brand awareness and longstanding dealer network.
However, ag remains challenged in 2026. Corn futures remain subdued at around $4.50 per bushel (up 2% year to date), while the USDA is forecasting modestly lower farm income and rising fertilizer prices could put further pressure on farmers.
EMC has benefited from mining demand and a recovering European construction market, which could be threatened by higher oil prices amid the Iran conflict.
We forecast a narrowing free cash outflow in 2026 on improved cash flow from operations amid tighter working capital management.
Our $10 price target is based on 12x our 2027 free cash flow per share (FCFPS) forecast of $0.80, in the early stages of a recovery. Our moderate risk rating is based on expectations of a narrowing free cash outflow this year.
14 Apr 2026
We Forecast Improving Earthmoving/Construction Demand And Flat Ag Revenue In 1Q:26; Ongoing Efficiency Improvements Should Support Margins; Maintain $10 Price Target
Sign up for free to access
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
We Forecast Improving Earthmoving/Construction Demand And Flat Ag Revenue In 1Q:26; Ongoing Efficiency Improvements Should Support Margins; Maintain $10 Price Target
We project about 2% year-over-year revenue growth to $501 million in 1Q:26 (near the midpoint of management's guidance of $490-$500 million) on recovering EMC (Earthmoving/Construction) demand and flat Ag sales.
We forecast stable margins from 1Q:25 on modest revenue improvement and essentially flat EPS. Ongoing efficiency gains, cost reductions or mix could drive a slightly better result, in our view.
We note last month's TWI announcement of domestic tire production consolidation (closure of a facility in Jackson, TN) as part of its continued efficiency program.
And we highlight margin gains by TWI since the last downcycle, in part supported by the addition of Carlstar and ongoing efficiency improvements.
The stock appears attractively valued, in our view, at near book value, ahead of an eventual ag recovery, underpinned by an aging tractor fleet. We also note Titan's strong brand awareness and longstanding dealer network.
However, ag remains challenged in 2026. Corn futures remain subdued at around $4.50 per bushel (up 2% year to date), while the USDA is forecasting modestly lower farm income and rising fertilizer prices could put further pressure on farmers.
EMC has benefited from mining demand and a recovering European construction market, which could be threatened by higher oil prices amid the Iran conflict.
We forecast a narrowing free cash outflow in 2026 on improved cash flow from operations amid tighter working capital management.
Our $10 price target is based on 12x our 2027 free cash flow per share (FCFPS) forecast of $0.80, in the early stages of a recovery. Our moderate risk rating is based on expectations of a narrowing free cash outflow this year.