While we expect growing Earthmoving/Construction (EMC) revenue in 2026-2027, we trim our estimates on a slower Ag recovery.
Revenue expanded 7% year over year in 4Q:25, about 6% ahead of our forecast, as EMC sales topped our projection by almost 16% on strong mining, recovering European construction markets, and FX benefits, while Ag remained essentially flat.
Gross margin in 4Q:25 was narrower than our forecast in part due to weak Consumer mix. Loss per share of $0.27 in 4Q:25 was essentially in line.
We model 2% revenue growth in 2026 as stronger EMC is partially offset by flat Ag expectations. We forecast accelerating growth in 2027 as Ag begins to improve.
New product development and strong aftermarket exposure could modestly boost Consumer demand in 2026, in our view.
While we anticipate Ag demand has already troughed with OEM destocking largely complete, we still await industry catalysts, including rising farmer income.
Early signs of an Ag recovery, including higher crop prices or strengthening farmer income, would enable us to revisit our estimates and target price.
Earlier this month, the USDA forecast net farm income would be about 1% lower with inflation-adjusted crop receipts similarly down about 1%.
A more prolonged downturn could drive improving Ag aftermarket demand, benefiting from TWI's strong dealer network, given the aging U.S. tractor fleet.
We forecast a narrowing free cash outflow in 2026 on improved cash flow from operations and tighter working capital management. We model FCF funding debt reduction in 2027, although higher capex may be warranted to support a recovery.
Our unchanged $10 price target is based on 12x our unchanged 2027 free cash flow per share (FCFPS) forecast of $0.80, as a lower cash flow from operations projection is offset by reduced capex. Our moderate risk rating is based on TWI's strong, longstanding dealer network and high brand awareness.
27 Feb 2026
Trim Estimates On Expected Slower Ag Recovery; Anticipate Improving Earthmoving/Construction In 2026; Maintain $10 Price Target
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Trim Estimates On Expected Slower Ag Recovery; Anticipate Improving Earthmoving/Construction In 2026; Maintain $10 Price Target
Titan International (TWI:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
27 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
While we expect growing Earthmoving/Construction (EMC) revenue in 2026-2027, we trim our estimates on a slower Ag recovery.
Revenue expanded 7% year over year in 4Q:25, about 6% ahead of our forecast, as EMC sales topped our projection by almost 16% on strong mining, recovering European construction markets, and FX benefits, while Ag remained essentially flat.
Gross margin in 4Q:25 was narrower than our forecast in part due to weak Consumer mix. Loss per share of $0.27 in 4Q:25 was essentially in line.
We model 2% revenue growth in 2026 as stronger EMC is partially offset by flat Ag expectations. We forecast accelerating growth in 2027 as Ag begins to improve.
New product development and strong aftermarket exposure could modestly boost Consumer demand in 2026, in our view.
While we anticipate Ag demand has already troughed with OEM destocking largely complete, we still await industry catalysts, including rising farmer income.
Early signs of an Ag recovery, including higher crop prices or strengthening farmer income, would enable us to revisit our estimates and target price.
Earlier this month, the USDA forecast net farm income would be about 1% lower with inflation-adjusted crop receipts similarly down about 1%.
A more prolonged downturn could drive improving Ag aftermarket demand, benefiting from TWI's strong dealer network, given the aging U.S. tractor fleet.
We forecast a narrowing free cash outflow in 2026 on improved cash flow from operations and tighter working capital management. We model FCF funding debt reduction in 2027, although higher capex may be warranted to support a recovery.
Our unchanged $10 price target is based on 12x our unchanged 2027 free cash flow per share (FCFPS) forecast of $0.80, as a lower cash flow from operations projection is offset by reduced capex. Our moderate risk rating is based on TWI's strong, longstanding dealer network and high brand awareness.