2023 was expected to be the peak in capex but 2024 guidance implies only a marginal step lower in spend (SEK14bn vs SEK15bn) even before considering a yet to be announced budget for the tank house at Ronnskar which insurance will not cover 100%. We forecast negative FCF generation continuing in 2024 before returning to positive in 2025 albeit with the caveat that the majority of the tank house spend, net of insurance, could likely weigh on that estimate. 3Q23 wrap Earnings recovered in 3Q23, from a low base in 2Q23, led by Smelters. Group level EBIT was +4% ahead of consensus. FCF remained negative but better than feared and also hampered by a cSEK400m WC investment. 2023 capex guidance was reiterated at SEK15bn and 2024 guidance was introduced at SEK14bn (+4% vs consensus) which notably does not include anything for potential tank house capex. Smelter update The feasibility study for a new tank house is ongoing and Boliden is hopeful to provide an update in 1Q24. Ronnskar has adjusted its business model from cathode to anode sales but with it comes the loss of refining charges, free metals and premiums, partially offset by lower variable costs. Boliden estimates the y/y EBIT impact from the fire at SEK1bn. The increased working capital levels of cSEK1bn is expected to begin to be unwound in 4Q23 which we have factored primarily into our 2024 FCF forecasts. Estimate revisions We upgrade our 2023 EBIT forecast +10% on improved performance in Smelters but cut 2024 and 2025 EBIT forecasts by -13% and -14% on lower zinc price forecasts impacting Mines. We continue to derive our TP via a 50/50 weighting of DCF-based NPV and ROCE/WACC. As such, our TP declines to SEK290 (prev SEK300) and reiterate Neutral.