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23 Apr 2025
2025 FCF under pressure

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2025 FCF under pressure
- Published:
23 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
10 -
Updating estimates
Following 1Q25 results, we cut our EBIT excluding PIR forecast by -2% to SEK 10.2bn for 2025, leaving our estimate +1% above consensus. The downgrade was primarily driven by the mining division, reflecting the new volume and cost guidance on Somincor and Zinkgruvan. Conversely, we upgraded forecasts for the smelting division to reflect the stronger operating performance. Earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were largely unchanged, but we increased capex estimates for these periods to reflect the latest guidance on completed acquisition. Consequently, we made significant cut to our FCF forecast as we expect smaller working capital release for 2025 and 2026. Detailed estimate revisions are provided in variance table overleaf.
1Q25 results recap
Boliden delivered a beat in 1Q25 with EBIT excluding PIR +3% ahead of consensus, but the eliminations line was the driver of the beat, as it had flipped positive. FCF, while a temporary headwind from WC, was a significant miss. Capex guidance increased to SEK 15.5bn, solely driven by the completed acquisition. Milled volume and grade guidance for Boliden''s historic mines were unchanged for 2025. For a more in-depth summary of the quarterly results, please see our note here.
FCF under pressure
Boliden looks set for a difficult 2025 with copper and zinc TC annual contract settled at a historic low. Grade guidance also points to another year of relying on throughput to support volumes. The low grades continue to expose Boliden to production volatility from relatively minor deviations vs. mine plans. With breakeven FCF forecast for 2025 amid still elevated capex levels, there is limited scope to pay additional returns beyond the ordinary dividend.