A weak quarter expected on 18 July We forecast 2Q25 EBIT, excluding PIR (Boliden''s headline number), to contract -39% q/q to SEK1.6bn (figure 1), in-line with Bloomberg consensus. We expect weakness across Mining and Smelting as the latter transitions to be 100% on the 2025 annual copper TCRC contract (vs 50% in 1Q25), an expected SEK300m headwind. While the quarter should show an alleviation of the strikes seen in 1Q25 and the first full quarter of contribution from the recently acquired assets, this will be more than offset by the aforementioned TCRC contract, planned maintenance, advisor payments and metal prices/Fx. Copper smelting outlook remains challenged Antofagasta (-) reportedly concluded 2H25 copper TCRC negotiations at USD0/t with Chinese smelters. While better than the opening offer of negative USD15/t, it represents another meaningful step-down vs the 2025 contract of USD21.25/t and is setting the stage for a difficult 2026 negotiation (usually concluded around mid-November). While Boliden is not particularly exposed to the spot market, it is clearly exposed to contract negotiations for future years and if gold doesn''t hold to these levels USD3,330/oz which have lifted free metal credits, it could be a very difficult phase before smelters curtail production balances the market. Lowering estimates in Mining, mostly unchanged in Smelting At the group level, we cut our 2025 EBITDA and EBIT, excluding PIR by -5% and -1% respectively (figure 2). This is predominantly driven by the Mining division where we mark-to-market for 2Q25 and get more conservative on cost performance in the coming quarters. Our 2026 and 2027 forecasts are largely unchanged (-1% on average). Despite the earnings downgrade in 2025, we keep our SEK250 TP unchanged as some updates to underlying assumptions for WACC offset the earnings decrease. We reiterate our Underperform rating.