What happened?
Boliden reported a solid 4Q24 beat with EBIT excluding PIR +6% ahead of consensus amid improved performance at Smelters. FCF was the highlight with strong working cap release during the quarter. 2025 capex was increased to SEK 14.0bn to include the SEK0.5bn roll-over from 2024. The board proposed to cancel the ordinary dividend for 2024 to reduce the proposed share issue. Boliden will host a call to discuss the results this morning at 8:30am UK time.
BNPP Exane View:
Boliden reported 4Q24 EBIT excluding PIR of SEK3,814m, +6% ahead of both Visible Alpha and Company compiled consensus. The beat was driven by strong performance at the Smelters (+18% ahead of Company compiled consensus). Smelter''s profitability increased q/q, primarily due to the inclusion of insurance income and higher prices.
Mines profitability moderated q/q (-32% below consensus), primarily driven by lower volumes (production limits in Garpenberg and lower gold grade in the Boliden area), partially offset by higher prices due to stronger USD. Costs also increased due to seasonality and the startup of Tara.
FCF during the quarter of SEK 4,264m was a strong beat to consensus, thanks to SEK 3,733m working cap release. Net debt reduced to 10,662m amid strong cash flow and was -27% below consensus.
2025 capex was increased to SEK 14.0bn from SEK 13.5bn. The 2025 capital expenditure guidance includes a SEK 0.5 billion roll-over from 2024, while the combined spend for 2024 and 2025 is unchanged.
Planned maintenance shutdowns in Smelters during 2025 are estimated to impact operating profit by SEK -500m (vs. SEK -400m in 2024). The strikes in Finland that started early 2025 have so far had an estimated impact on operating profits by just over SEK -100 m.
The Board of Directors proposes to cancel the ordinary dividend for 2024 (would have been cSEK 3.3bn), in order to reduce the proposed share issue with the corresponding amount. The remaining equity will be raised through a...
