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11 Feb 2025
Better-than-expected quarter but FCF to remain under pressure

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Better-than-expected quarter but FCF to remain under pressure
- Published:
11 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
10 -
Updating estimates
Following 4Q24 results, we increase our EBIT excluding PIR forecasts by +3-11% for 2025-2027 but remain -18% below consensus on average through that period. The upgrades are primarily driven by the smelting division given outperformance relative to expectation. Conversely, we downgrade forecasts for the mining division to reflect the weaker operating performance and incorporate the latest reserves estimate for Kevitsa. Consequently, we upgrade our 2025-2027 FCF estimates to reflect the higher earnings forecasts. However, there is a smaller impact to EPS given upward revisions to taxes and interest. Detailed estimate revisions are provided in variance table overleaf.
4Q24 results recap
Boliden reported a solid 4Q24 beat with EBIT excluding PIR +6% ahead of consensus amid improved performance at smelters. FCF was the highlight amid strong working cap release during the quarter. 2025 capex was increased to SEK 14.0bn to include the SEK0.5bn roll-over from 2024. The board proposed to cancel the ordinary dividend for 2024 to reduce the proposed share issue. For a more in-depth summary of the quarterly results, please see our note here.
FCF to remain pressured in 2025
Another year of flat/lower mined grades, lower TCRC contract for smelters and still elevated capex levels: all will likely continue to pressure FCF yield this year (BNPPE +2%). Operating low grade mines also continues to expose Boliden to production volatility from relatively minor deviations vs mine plans.