Challenges at mines, while smelters performed robustly. Limited on capital returns Q4 EBIT excluding PIR at SEK3.2bn was a 4% miss to consensus, mainly driven by weak production at mines on lower grades. As flagged at the CMD at the end of last year, weak grades at Aitik are the current challenge (as low as 0.17% potentially, but temporarily). Smelter production was stable, helped by record high gold production. The balance sheet has improved sequentially with a small net cash position after a large working cap release in Q4 (cSEK3.2bn), driven by a reduction in inventory of nickel and precious metals. Inflation pressure is expected to extend into 2023 but taper off. With Boliden pursuing multiple (medium sized) projects at the same time, its capex profile looks to remain busy for the next couple of years, weighing on the group''s ability to surprise positively on capital returns. Company update and market outlook Boliden has a commodity suite well suited to the future energy transition and has seen its pricing basket aided by some supply-side disruption. A short mine life and flooding impacting underground exploration at the Tara zinc mine in Ireland could have a knock-on impact on the Odda zinc smelter expansion. Capex is guided to increase c50% YoY in 2023 while Aitik faces further low mined grades, creating headwinds for FCF and dividends. We structurally like copper and nickel as commodities while zinc has also done well on European production suspensions. The smelting business benefited from the rise in TCs, metal prices, and acid prices, but spot TCs have softened and sulfuric acid has come down materially, suggesting smelting earnings have likely peaked. Both Class 1 battery grade and stainless steel Class 2 grades have been weak over the last 3+ months. Valuation revised to SEK384 on lower mine production and higher discount rate. Increasing risk in Latin America reflects favourably on Boliden''s Nordic presence in terms of copper...