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31 Mar 2022
Conference feedback: high voltage rewiring
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,298 | Acerinox SA (ACX:MCE), 0 | Outokumpu Oyj (OUT1V:HEL), 0 | Eramet SA (ERA:PAR), 0 | voestalpine AG (VOE:WBO), 0 | thyssenkrupp AG (TKA:ETR), 0 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 2,168 | ArcelorMittal SA (MT:AMS), 0 | Nucor Corporation (NUE:NYS), 0 | Newmont Mining (NEM:NYSE), 0 | Newmont Corporation (NEM:NYS), 0 | Antofagasta plc (ANTO:LON), 1,778 | Aurubis AG (NDA:ETR), 0 | Boliden AB (BOL:OME), 0 | Mining and Metallurgical Company NORILSK NICKEL PJSC (GMKN:MIC), 0 | Vale S.A. Sponsored ADR (VALE:NYS), 0 | First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM:TSE), 0 | Kloeckner & Co SE (KCO:ETR), 0 | Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD:NAS), 0 | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF:NYS), 0 | Aperam S.A. (APAM:AMS), 0 | South32 Ltd. (S32:LON), 141 | Metallus Inc. (MTUS:NYS), 0 | Reliance, Inc. (RS:NYS), 0 | Commercial Metals Company (CMC:NYS), 0 | Acerinox SA (0OIQ:LON), 0 | Bollore SE (0IXZ:LON), 0 | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (0I0H:LON), 0 | Commercial Metals Company (CMS:BRN), 0 | Eramet SA (0MGV:LON), 0 | Nucor Corporation (0K9L:LON), 0 | Reliance, Inc. (RS6:BRN), 0 | Steel Dynamics, Inc. (1STLD:MIL), 0 | Metallus Inc. (ZS2:FRA), 0 | voestalpine AG (0MKX:LON), 0

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Conference feedback: high voltage rewiring
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,298 | Acerinox SA (ACX:MCE), 0 | Outokumpu Oyj (OUT1V:HEL), 0 | Eramet SA (ERA:PAR), 0 | voestalpine AG (VOE:WBO), 0 | thyssenkrupp AG (TKA:ETR), 0 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 2,168 | ArcelorMittal SA (MT:AMS), 0 | Nucor Corporation (NUE:NYS), 0 | Newmont Mining (NEM:NYSE), 0 | Newmont Corporation (NEM:NYS), 0 | Antofagasta plc (ANTO:LON), 1,778 | Aurubis AG (NDA:ETR), 0 | Boliden AB (BOL:OME), 0 | Mining and Metallurgical Company NORILSK NICKEL PJSC (GMKN:MIC), 0 | Vale S.A. Sponsored ADR (VALE:NYS), 0 | First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM:TSE), 0 | Kloeckner & Co SE (KCO:ETR), 0 | Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD:NAS), 0 | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF:NYS), 0 | Aperam S.A. (APAM:AMS), 0 | South32 Ltd. (S32:LON), 141 | Metallus Inc. (MTUS:NYS), 0 | Reliance, Inc. (RS:NYS), 0 | Commercial Metals Company (CMC:NYS), 0 | Acerinox SA (0OIQ:LON), 0 | Bollore SE (0IXZ:LON), 0 | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (0I0H:LON), 0 | Commercial Metals Company (CMS:BRN), 0 | Eramet SA (0MGV:LON), 0 | Nucor Corporation (0K9L:LON), 0 | Reliance, Inc. (RS6:BRN), 0 | Steel Dynamics, Inc. (1STLD:MIL), 0 | Metallus Inc. (ZS2:FRA), 0 | voestalpine AG (0MKX:LON), 0
- Published:
31 Mar 2022 -
Author:
Rosenfeld Seth SR | Gresser Tristan TG | Wang Xin XW | Goel Jatinder JG | Brunet Sylvain SBr -
Pages:
80 -
We hosted 24 Metals, Mining and Steel companies on 22-24 March for the 17th edition of our Basic Materials Conference. With the Russia-Ukraine crisis having exacerbated already tight metals markets, the focus was on supply chain management, cost pass-through and fears of demand destruction. Security of supply is materialising as a key driver of metals markets keeping prices higher for longer.
What have we learnt from the Miners?
Margins are expanding, with metals markets tight on the ground, and the Russian-Ukraine war adding disruption to some. Two years of pandemic have made miners more agile on their supply chains, with cost pressures limited to energy, freight, price-linked-costs and royalties. The message was unanimous across miners that only the conviction of higher long-term prices would motivate a supply response, not short-term spikes. Responsible mining is needed to supply for an even more pressing energy transition than before, but the capex drought looks to prevail in the short term on project lead times, rising political/fiscal risks, ESG and capital discipline constraints. Excess returns will go to shareholders.
What have we learnt from the Steelmakers?
Steelmakers and distributors are increasingly prepared for a higher-for-longer steel and raw materials price environment as the tragic Russia-Ukraine crisis disrupts two of the world''s largest steel exporters and drives unprecedented supply chain challenges. Management teams remain bullish on demand and focused on passing on surging raw materials costs via price hikes - as reflected in successfully rising metal spreads in both Europe and the USA. While steelmakers are focused on securing new sources of raw materials previously sourced from Russia, we heard only mixed interest in localising supply chains to limit this risk moving forward.
Our most/least preferred stocks
Glencore (+), Anglo American (+), Norsk Hydro (+), Eramet (+) are well placed on exposure. Upside risk...