With the confluence of looming supply tightness, structural demand growth tied to global GDP, energy transition demand tailwinds and now the prospect of demand growth tied to data centres, copper remains our preferred metal exposure. Freeport (+) remains our top pick amongst the copper miners, and we increase our TP +20% today. Upgrading copper price forecasts We see incremental tightness in the global copper market, detailed alongside our S/D model in this report, leading us to increase our price forecasts to USD 9,250/t in 2024 and USD 9,750/t in 2025 (vs spot USD 9,282/t), increases of +8% on average vs our prior forecasts. We would argue our price forecasts remain conservative as we are, by our estimation, in the second year of a deficit that will be difficult to climb out of. Approval of greenfield copper production in 2023 was the lowest on record (back to 2007) and will only exacerbate supply concerns towards the back end of the decade. Tight supply 2024 now looks firmly in a deficit (BNPPE 270kt). This should ease somewhat in 2025 (BNPPE 113kt deficit), but that assumes the resumption of production from Cobre Panama, which undoubtedly still carries its own downside risk. While we still forecast Chinese consumption to increase y/y in 2024 (+3.0%), it would struggle to match the very strong growth seen in 2023 (+7.6%). We expect DM demand to improve in 2024, particularly from H2 onwards. Ways to play A rising tide lifts TPs and earnings estimates for copper producers, while lower annual TCRC assumptions for 2025 (USD 50/t) cut both ways for smelters. Amongst primary copper producers, Freeport remains our preferred name with strong FCF inflection through 2025, a clean balance sheet, and unique upside to gold by-products with spot trading USD 2,300/oz. A standalone note today looks at the potential USD 15bn opportunity in Phases 2 and 3 of its leaching initiatives.