Boliden shares have outperformed peers on a 1- and 3-month basis, something we find hard to justify fundamentally. With a weaker outlook for mined grades, a big contract reset coming for the smelting business and lacklustre FCF generation for the new few years, we downgrade to Underperform (from Neutral) and cut our TP to SEK275 (from SEK305). Facing a difficult 2025 Another year of flat/lower mined grades, a big TCRC contract reset for smelters and still elevated capex levels: all will likely continue to pressure FCF, which should improve y/y but only to just about break-even on our forecasts. Operating low grade mines continues to expose Boliden to production volatility from relatively minor deviations vs mine plans. With MandA risk While mgmt. understandably won''t comment on specifics, several reports (ie Dagens Industri ,13 Sept 2024) has linked Boliden to potentially acquiring Lundin Mining''s (NR) Zinkgruvan and Neves-Corvo mines. Visible Alpha has a consensus NAV valuation of USD0.4bn and USD1.1bn for those assets respectively. On the 3Q24 results call, Boliden mgmt. stated they would not want to go above 40% gearing (24% currently) and on the 2Q24 call noted they ''wouldn''t rule out'' an equity raise to fund the purchase of the right asset. The delta between the 24% and 40% gearing implies about USD950m of headroom. If Boliden just went after Zinkgruvan, it would likely be fine but if it went after Neves-Corvo or both then it creates a higher probability of a potentially dilutive equity issuance. Cutting outer-year estimates and TP, downgrading to Underperform (from Neutral) 2024 earnings upgrades are driven by better-than-expected 3Q24 and a SEK935m insurance claim to be booked in 4Q24. With new guidance for 2025 mine grades and another reduction in our forecast copper TCRC contract for 2025, we cut 2025 EBIT excl. PIR by -7%, leaving our 2025 and 2026 forecasts -18% and -5% vs consensus. TP cut to SEK275 (vs SEK305) and rating to Underperform.