Boliden has faced multiple headwinds in short order; Ronnskar fire, weak Kevitsa grades and Tara placed on care and maintenance. These further pressure what was already set to be weak FCF in 2023/2024. We cut estimates but upgrade to Neutral with shares now reflecting the tough outlook. Known 2Q23 Headwinds We previously detailed Boliden''s 2Q23 warning here. The SEK 700m headwind to 2Q23 is predominantly driven by the mining division (Tara and Kevitsa) while Ronnskar is a SEK85m headwind per week while production is totally stopped. In our model, we have assumed Tara remains on care and maintenance for one year and the Ronnskar smelter doesn''t return to full cathode production for two years. We await further guidance, potentially with 2Q23 results on 21 July, on the level of asset impairment, capex required for a new cell house and how much insurance will cover. FCF Generation Will Remain Weak While we leave our capex estimates unch pending firmer guidance on the Ronnskar cell house rebuild, the cuts to our EBITDA forecasts now push our 2023 FCF forecast to be slightly negative (prev slight positive) and 2024 yield remaining 3%. FCF into 2025 will improve (7% yield) but cash conversion of 29% is still forecast below that of 2020-2022 (35% average). Updating Commodity Deck We update our commodity price deck, detailed in the sector note here this morning. For the 2023 metal price forecasts most relevant to Boliden, copper is held flat vs prior, nickel -6% on oversupply from NPI and zinc -15% on construction exposure. Upgrading to Neutral, TP SEK 315/sh Alongside reflecting the revised commodity deck, we have cut our 2023 and 2024 EBITDA forecasts by -13% and -10% respectively, leaving us -14% below a still volatile consensus for both years. We reduce our TP to SEK 315/sh (prev SEK 325/sh) and upgrade to Neutral (from Underperform) as the share price weakness has, in our opinion, reflected the medium-term challenges.