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14 Jun 2023
Quantifying 2Q23 Headwinds

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Quantifying 2Q23 Headwinds
- Published:
14 Jun 2023 -
Author:
Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
8 -
The fire that impacted the Ronnskar smelter last night has been limited to the cell house and adjacent infrastructure but the cell house has been completely destroyed, stopping other production at Ronnskar for safety considerations. Production, except electrolysis, is expected to resume within weeks but each week that all production is stopped, Boliden estimates it to be a SEK85m headwind. The potential writedown of asset values as a result of the fire is too early to be estimated. In 2022, Ronnskar was 21% of smelter EBIT and 8% of group EBIT.
SEK 700m Headwind to 2Q23
Boliden estimates the stopped production at Ronnskar and lower than previously expected grades at Kevitsa and Tara to have a cumulative SEK 700m headwind to 2Q23 EBIT (Visible Alpha 2Q23 EBIT consensus SEK 3.3bn). Boliden will report 2Q23 results on 20 July. The mine plan has been adjusted at Kevitsa, pushing more lower grade material into 2Q23 with expected spill-over impacts into 2H23. The expected 2Q23 copper and nickel grades at Kevitsa of 0.21% and 0.16% and materially below the reserve grades of 0.34% and 0.23%, respectively. Tara has also been affected by lower with 2Q23 zinc grade now expected to be 4.7% (1Q23: 5.3%). The impact to the Mines division during the quarter is estimated to be SEK 500m. The total SEK 700m headwind (Mines + Smelters) also includes the impact of underperformance at the Garpenberg mill (previously communicated unplanned repair shutdown in 1Q23) which had affected the beginning of the quarter.
Tara Placed on Care and Maintenance
Boliden has also placed its Tara mine in Ireland on care and maintenance, resulting in production and exploration ceasing temporarily at the mine. The high-cost zinc mine has struggled with currently negative cash flow driven by a combination of operational challenges, declining zinc prices, high energy prices and cost inflation. In 2022, Tara was 5% of Mines EBIT and 3% of group EBIT.
Not Reflected in our Estimates
We...