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  • 26 Jul 2023

Resetting expectations


Boliden Ab (BOL:STO), 0 | Boliden AB (BOL:OME), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Spence Alan AS

    • 8 pages


 

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Resetting expectations


Boliden Ab (BOL:STO), 0 | Boliden AB (BOL:OME), 0

  • Published: 26 Jul 2023
  • Author: Spence Alan AS
  • Pages: 8
  • BNP Paribas Exane


2Q23 results were significantly weaker than expected and perhaps most damaging was that the weakness, relative to expectations, was driven by Mines rather than Smelters which was impacted by the fire. FCF now looks to be negative for 2023 and 2024 with the cell house rebuild at Ronnskar (update towards end of year) presenting additional potential downside to cashflow in 2024. 2Q23 Wrap EBIT excluding PIR of SEK 833m was 50% below COVID lows of 1H20 while FCF of negative SEK 3.8bn pushed gearing (still just 20%) to their highest level since 2Q17. Please see here a more detailed breakdown of 2Q23 results. Smelter rebuild remains an unknown The timeline and cost to rebuild the cell house at Ronnskar is yet to be quantified. A feasibility study has been launched and Boliden hopes to be able to provide an update, along with an investment decision, by the end of the year. Our understanding is that insurance will likely cover a majority of a new cell house but not all of the capex. At this time, we do not factor into our forecasts any additional capex nor insurance proceeds. Cutting estimates and TP We cut forecast EBIT excluding PIR by -22% in 2023 and -11% in 2024. While 2023 downgrades are driven by both Smelters and Mines, it is the latter driving the 2024 downgrades vs our prior forecasts as we see the weaker operational performance persisting. Whereas previously we saw a resumption of special dividends in 2025, this is now pushed out by an additional year with the dividends through 2030 not returning to the bumper years of 2021 and 2022 (average SEK 26.25/sh total dividend per annum). FCF is now forecast negative in both 2023 and 2024 before returning to a high-single digit yield in 2025 on today''s share price. The caveat on 2025 capex would be the cell house rebuild and compensation from insurance which is still unknown. Reiterate Neutral rating with SEK 300 TP (prior SEK 315).

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