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15 Oct 2024
Software & AI Q3 previews. Software fightback continues
SAP SE (SAP:ETR), 0 | AMAZON COM (AMZN:NYSE), 0 | Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN:NAS), 0 | MICROSOFT (MSFT:NYSE), 0 | Microsoft Corporation (MSFT:NAS), 0 | International Business Machines Corporation (IBM:NYS), 0 | ALPHABET INC-CL A (GOOGL:NYSE), 0 | Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL:NAS), 0 | Meta Platforms Inc Class A (META:NAS), 0 | ServiceNow (NOW:NYSE), 0 | ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW:NYS), 0

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Software & AI Q3 previews. Software fightback continues
SAP SE (SAP:ETR), 0 | AMAZON COM (AMZN:NYSE), 0 | Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN:NAS), 0 | MICROSOFT (MSFT:NYSE), 0 | Microsoft Corporation (MSFT:NAS), 0 | International Business Machines Corporation (IBM:NYS), 0 | ALPHABET INC-CL A (GOOGL:NYSE), 0 | Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL:NAS), 0 | Meta Platforms Inc Class A (META:NAS), 0 | ServiceNow (NOW:NYSE), 0 | ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW:NYS), 0
- Published:
15 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS -
Pages:
7 -
What happened?
Today we publish the results of our Quarterly EuroVision Software Reseller Channel Check Survey, where we survey 25 resellers (~50% in Europe). We also publish the results of our proprietary quarterly Digital Advertising TRACKER. We also publish earnings previews for September quarter-end Large Cap Software and AI companies we cover, including Alphabet, Amazon, IBM, Meta, Microsoft, SAP and ServiceNOW.
BNPP Exane View:
Our Software Reseller Survey results were most positive for SAP and IBM (revenge of the legacy continues)
They were Neutral for Google Cloud and ServiceNOW (will Neutral be good enough for NOW?)
And disappointing for AWS and MSFT. (will this accelerate the continued shift away from mega caps?)
Our Digital Ad TRACKER was Neutral for Alphabet and META. (is Neutral good enough for META?)
For Alphabet, we also provide the results of our investor survey on what they are looking for from the new CFO (hint: more communication), as well as feedback from last week''s Google Cloud Summit that we attended in London.
Software Spending Trends have improved from Q2 lows
Last quarter, our survey results reflected the weakness than many Software (and IT Services) companies saw in Q2 with discretionary spend weaker, longer deal cycles, and more macro pressures, especially in Europe. The results of our October Survey indicate trends have returned to where they had essentially been for the past ~15 months (see chart below).
From a Software segment basis, Cyber Security enters our Survey in top position. As a reminder, Andrew DeGasperi initiated on four Cyber Security stocks last week. That sector note is here: Mission Critical: Searching for AI Winners.
BI, AI / ML, Public Cloud were the next most in demand categories. Workflow Automation, CRM and Data Warehousing all fell one to two steps.
While Digital Advertising outperformed Software demand in H1, we see Advertising trends normalising as comps get more challenging, while Software...