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21 Jul 2025
WC driven FCF beat but overall a downbeat quarter

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WC driven FCF beat but overall a downbeat quarter
- Published:
21 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
10 -
Updating estimates following a generally weak quarter
Following 2Q25 results, we cut our EBIT excluding PIR forecast by -8% to SEK 8.5bn for 2025, leaving our estimate -9% below Bloomberg consensus. The downgrade is primarily driven by the mining division, reflecting the lower grade guidance on Garpenberg and higher depreciation from Somincor and Zinkgruvan. Conversely, we upgrade forecasts for the smelting division to reflect the stronger operating performance. Earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are largely unchanged, aside from the increased run rate of depreciation. We upgrade our FCF forecast for 2025 to reflect the stronger working capital release in 2Q25, while our FCF forecast for 2026 and 2027 remained largely unchanged. Reiterate Underperform with SEK 250 TP. Detailed estimate revisions are provided in the table overleaf.
2Q25 results recap
Boliden''s 2Q25 EBIT excluding PIR missed consensus by -9%. While Smelters came +65% ahead of consensus, Mines and the elimination line weighed on results. FCF during the quarter was well ahead of consensus, driven by a SEK 3.5bn WC release. Mine grade and tonnage guidance for 2025 is largely unchanged aside from Garpenberg where zinc grade guidance was modestly downgraded to 3.1% vs 3.3%. For a more in-depth summary of the quarterly results, please see note here.
Challenging outlook
Boliden looks set for a difficult 2025 with copper and zinc TC annual contract settled at a historic low. The weaker dollar against the SEK had a negative impact of SEK 600m to earnings in 2Q25 and we expect the FX headwind to continue in the second half. Grade guidance also points to another year of relying on throughput to support volumes. The low grades continue to expose Boliden to production volatility from relatively minor deviations vs. mine plans. With negative FCF forecast for 2025 amid elevated leverage, there is limited scope to pay additional returns beyond the ordinary dividend.