Following the Lyft Investor Day we update our view on the company. Since its IPO, Lyft has become a multi-layered business with several potential drivers for the growth and efficiency. The key message from management emphasized Lyft’s customer obsession, which is expected to help the company deliver profitable growth. Innovation and partnerships, Operational excellence and Lyft Media are three pillars supporting Lyft’s goal to double its Adj EBITDA margin as a percentage of gross bookings within three years. Over the past two years, Lyft has implemented several platform improvements to achieve better pricing for drivers and riders, better equipped drivers and provided them with transparent earnings, delivered a sustainable service to riders (including via Women+ Connect and partnerships), and enhanced ride safety.
Lyft Marketplace, which runs machine learning algorithms to facilitate rides, is expected to deliver further operational efficiencies, according to Lyft. The company plans to achieve 10% efficiencies per year from 2024 to 2027, measured by contra-revenue and S&M incentives spent per ride. Total non-GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of Gross bookings are projected to decrease by 50bps per year in 2024-2027. Three key elements - price, estimated time of arrival (ETA), and driver earnings -are expected to work together to optimize rides. Over the past two years, Lyft has reduced prime time by 40%, making earnings more transparent for drivers and improving ETA. Insurance cost management has reached a new level, in our view. Detailed mapping of insurance events, claim support, data collection, and risk mitigation mechanisms convincingly demonstrate how Lyft is keeping insurance costs under control. Partnerships also contribute to reducing insurance costs, further supporting this aspect of Lyft’s strategy.
Drivers’ experiences have significantly improved over the last two years. According to Lyft, 75% of drivers report a better understanding of their earnings since the launch of the ”Earnings Commitment”. Enhanced driver experiences, including proprietary maps, AI support, safety measures, the Women+ Connect app and other initiatives, have ensured a steady driver retention rate on the platform.
Partnerships remain a priority for Lyft. In 2023, 20% of all rides and over 850k new riders were linked to partnerships, according to Lyft. Major partners, including global companies, are driving the growth of order book, ride frequency and retention rate, while also contributing to reductions in insurance and operating costs. Lyft’s Healthcare ride business has a TAM of $10nb, which supports the launch of additional services like Lyft Assisted.
Lyft Media is transforming into a full-fledged media platform, expected to be fully functional in 2025. The internal customer data collected by Lyft may be used for ads purposes, creating additional earnings potential for drivers on the platform. Lyft Media platform is projected to become a significant contributor to the company’s gross bookings, with estimated growth from $50mn in 2024 to $400mn in 2027.
Lyft’s financial targets include Gross Bookings growth of 15% CAGR in 2024-2027 and Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Gross Bookings reaching 4% in 2027. Lyft also aims to reduce stock-based compensation to $0.35bn in 2024 (less than 6%) compared to $0.48bn in 2023, and targets less than 4% average dilution by 2027. By 2027, Lyft aims to achieve $25bn in Gross Bookings, $1bn in Adj EBITDA, and $900mn in free cash flow. These targets are ambitious, considering the competition in core markets with Uber, the larger and more diversified peer. Our scenario is based on a 12% Gross Bookings CAGR and an increase in Adj EBITDA as a percentage of Gross Bookings to 4% by 2028. Our DCF-based 12-month target price is $19.8/share, up from $18.4/share previously. We maintain our Buy rating for the stock.

21 Jun 2024
Lyft: Partnerships, Operational Efficiencies, and Lyft Media to drive growth

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Lyft: Partnerships, Operational Efficiencies, and Lyft Media to drive growth
- Published:
21 Jun 2024 -
Author:
Marina Alekseenkova -
Pages:
8 -
Following the Lyft Investor Day we update our view on the company. Since its IPO, Lyft has become a multi-layered business with several potential drivers for the growth and efficiency. The key message from management emphasized Lyft’s customer obsession, which is expected to help the company deliver profitable growth. Innovation and partnerships, Operational excellence and Lyft Media are three pillars supporting Lyft’s goal to double its Adj EBITDA margin as a percentage of gross bookings within three years. Over the past two years, Lyft has implemented several platform improvements to achieve better pricing for drivers and riders, better equipped drivers and provided them with transparent earnings, delivered a sustainable service to riders (including via Women+ Connect and partnerships), and enhanced ride safety.
Lyft Marketplace, which runs machine learning algorithms to facilitate rides, is expected to deliver further operational efficiencies, according to Lyft. The company plans to achieve 10% efficiencies per year from 2024 to 2027, measured by contra-revenue and S&M incentives spent per ride. Total non-GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of Gross bookings are projected to decrease by 50bps per year in 2024-2027. Three key elements - price, estimated time of arrival (ETA), and driver earnings -are expected to work together to optimize rides. Over the past two years, Lyft has reduced prime time by 40%, making earnings more transparent for drivers and improving ETA. Insurance cost management has reached a new level, in our view. Detailed mapping of insurance events, claim support, data collection, and risk mitigation mechanisms convincingly demonstrate how Lyft is keeping insurance costs under control. Partnerships also contribute to reducing insurance costs, further supporting this aspect of Lyft’s strategy.
Drivers’ experiences have significantly improved over the last two years. According to Lyft, 75% of drivers report a better understanding of their earnings since the launch of the ”Earnings Commitment”. Enhanced driver experiences, including proprietary maps, AI support, safety measures, the Women+ Connect app and other initiatives, have ensured a steady driver retention rate on the platform.
Partnerships remain a priority for Lyft. In 2023, 20% of all rides and over 850k new riders were linked to partnerships, according to Lyft. Major partners, including global companies, are driving the growth of order book, ride frequency and retention rate, while also contributing to reductions in insurance and operating costs. Lyft’s Healthcare ride business has a TAM of $10nb, which supports the launch of additional services like Lyft Assisted.
Lyft Media is transforming into a full-fledged media platform, expected to be fully functional in 2025. The internal customer data collected by Lyft may be used for ads purposes, creating additional earnings potential for drivers on the platform. Lyft Media platform is projected to become a significant contributor to the company’s gross bookings, with estimated growth from $50mn in 2024 to $400mn in 2027.
Lyft’s financial targets include Gross Bookings growth of 15% CAGR in 2024-2027 and Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Gross Bookings reaching 4% in 2027. Lyft also aims to reduce stock-based compensation to $0.35bn in 2024 (less than 6%) compared to $0.48bn in 2023, and targets less than 4% average dilution by 2027. By 2027, Lyft aims to achieve $25bn in Gross Bookings, $1bn in Adj EBITDA, and $900mn in free cash flow. These targets are ambitious, considering the competition in core markets with Uber, the larger and more diversified peer. Our scenario is based on a 12% Gross Bookings CAGR and an increase in Adj EBITDA as a percentage of Gross Bookings to 4% by 2028. Our DCF-based 12-month target price is $19.8/share, up from $18.4/share previously. We maintain our Buy rating for the stock.