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17 Nov 2021
First Take: Informa - Ongoing improvement

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First Take: Informa - Ongoing improvement
Informa Plc (INF:LON), 892 | RELX PLC (REL:LON), 3,449
- Published:
17 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
4 -
Robust trading update
In its 10 month trading update today, Informa notes that trading at a group level continues to improve yoy, with FY21 guidance of revenue at c.£1.8bn / EBITA c.£375m re-iterated. In events, Informa has run 250 physical events across North America, China, Middle East & Europe, and notes it has seen a steady increase in participation / revenue performance – with some events exceeding 2019 levels, and an average achieved of >50% of 2019, as well as improving rebooking momentum into 2022. We currently assume the main Markets division reaches 70% of 2019 in FY22E, 85% in FY23E and 103% in FY24E.
Impressive subscription strength
Elsewhere, in the subscription businesses, Informa Intelligence has seen 6% organic growth thus far, and so management raise FY divisional growth guidance to 6%, from 4.5%+, and expect 6%+ org growth in the division next year (INVe 5%). The Taylor & Francis academic publishing business grew 2.5% for the 10 months (INVe FY21 2.0%). In terms of cash-flow & the balance sheet, management note the business is tracking well ahead of expectations for cash generation, raising FCF guidance to £325m, and separately announce the sale of Barbour ABI & Asset Intelligence (previously both under review) for proceeds of £275m, an average multiple of 16x EBITDA.
Higher quality revenues to attract a higher multiple
Informa is holding a CMD on Dec 7 to further address the planned investments / aspirations for ‘GAP 2’, its new strategic program - this aims (in events) to expand its addressable audience and facilitate year-round interaction with customers (shifting towards a marketplace model). The success of GAP 1 focused on the Intelligence division should provide confidence in management’s ability to deliver returns on new investments. Informa currently trades at 14x CY23E earnings, relative to RELX at 22x – as discussed previously, with a shift to higher quality revenue growth underway, we think scope for re-rating exists over time.