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20 Oct 2022
First Take: RELX Group - Legal appeal

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First Take: RELX Group - Legal appeal
Informa Plc (INF:LON), 891 | RELX PLC (REL:LON), 3,445
- Published:
20 Oct 2022 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
4 -
Growth accelerates
RELX has reported YTD organic growth of 9% (albeit influenced by the rebounding Exhibitions division up 85%). Both Risk (+7%) and STM (+4%) continued during Q3 at the growth rates seen in H1 – with Risk’s Business Services arm seeing demand remain strong and the Insurance arm improving. The Legal division delivered an impressive acceleration to 5% YTD (4% in H1), with management citing the contribution of increasing provision of analytical tools to customers. Qualitative FY guidance by division remains unchanged, but management note that momentum remains strong across the group.
Getting the memo
Management are hosting a conference call at 8.30am – alongside discussion of current operating trends, we expect the focus of questions on two main areas: firstly, on the impact of recent sterling weakness on the balance sheet (as well as EBITA), given meaningful US$ floating rate debt, and secondly on management’s views around the potential impact (or lack thereof) of the recent White House memo, mandating that US federally funded scientific research will be made publicly available. This research is estimated to represent c.8% of global scientific research, and previously had to be made freely available 12 months after initial publication. We believe this should not be an issue in terms of US federal funds as a revenue source (being instead mandated towards paying for publication of articles), but with another 8% of global research not behind a paywall, it could contribute to a deflationary impact from Open Access on traditional subscription journal contracts.
Valuation full but fair
RELX currently trades at c.18x calendar FY24E PE, significantly above Informa at 12.5x – RELX’s track record certainly justifies a valuation premium, but we recognise that rising bond yields are likely to weigh on its fundamental valuation long-term, limiting upside somewhat. As highlighted in our recent note (‘Now to show what it can do’), we continue to prefer Informa given its exposure to the strong late cycle recovery in the exhibition industry, the scale of valuation discount and the scope for accretive M&A / further buybacks.